One Flop, Ten Hands

One Flop, Ten Hands
Ed Miller Explores Ten Situations On One Flop
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker-news/16138-poker-strategy-with-ed-miller-one-flop-ten-hands
[What happened pre-flop?]You have a $1,000 stack, and most of your opponents have you covered. Everyone folds to the player two off the button who opens for $30, [a $20 raise, 2x BB, with $5/$10 blinds.] You call on the button. The blinds fold. It’s two players to the flop, and the pot is $75. 
[Seat 8 could have anything depending on the type of player. Tight players would most likely raise 3xBB with AA-TT, any raise Minimum to 2xBB is more likely AK to AJ, possibly KQ or QJ, Loose players would probably raise 3xBB with anything if everyone folded to him. Selective Aggressive and Solid players are more likely to raise 2BB with any good suited connectors or trying to trap with over pairs, below AA. The flop is the real decision maker for most players.]
10♣  6♦  3♠ (no flushes or straights made, best non-paired hand is a straight on the turn or flush on the river)
Top set, I would just call. Slow playing top set is natural, since the holding cripples the deck for our opponent. On this board, I will be raising nearly all my value hands, so it’s nice to still be able to threaten the nuts when I just call the flop. Some players would look at the possible draws and think it’s too dangerous to slow play. With most hands we aren't slow playing. Just this one.
Middle set is a raise. We’re raising a lot of hands, so we definitely should raise bottom and middle set. If we catch our opponent with an overpair or A-10, we could easily win stacks.
[Over pairs] 
Do not always reraise (over pairs like Q-Q) preflop in position, and one reason I don’t is that I like to have this hand in my range on flops like this one. This is a flop raise. If I’m going to apply pressure with bluffs, I need to have real hands sometimes also.
[Two over cards, Ace high] 
Call. We have two overcards, a backdoor-flush draw to the queen, and possible ace-high showdown value. It’s not a great hand, but recall that our strategy has us folding infrequently because of our structural advantages in the pot. I prefer calling with this hand over bluffing, as calling preserves the showdown value, and we’ll almost never end the hand with the nuts, so there’s no value to building a pot.
[Drawing hands] 
A wrong-suited gutshot to the nuts. This is a hand I’d raise. Again, we’re raising frequently to push our positional advantage and possibly to punish our opponent for continuation betting too many hands. Gutshots to the nuts make good bluff-raising hands in general, as they typically have no showdown value, and they also can justify building the pot since you will end up occasionally stacking an opponent when you hit the nuts. If you get reraised, you fold.
Top pair with a marginal kicker. This is a straightforward call. If this pot blows up, your hand is not good. It’s best suited to pick off bluffs and to protect your calling range (since you’re also calling with unpaired hands).
Middle pair with 2 card backdoor-flush and low end 2 card straight draws. This is a hand I might have reraised preflop. But if I didn’t, I’m likely raising it now. The potential to make three sixes or the backdoor draws add value to this hand in a big pot. Many turn cards add equity to this hand — any spade and any six through deuce. If our opponent calls the flop raise, we will frequently get to bet big on the turn with a decent chance of drawing out when called.
Bottom pair with the nut-flush 2 card draw. Many people raise this hand reflexively, but I prefer to call here. If you get this hand all-in on the flop, you’re likely up against a set or a big overpair — a range against which you are a slight dog.
[Gapped Low pairs, between middle pair and low pair, such as 55 or 44] 
This is the type of hand I fold. There’s a small amount of showdown value, but that’s it. The draw isn’t strong enough to risk a big pot. And it can’t handle a second bet. I also fold hands that need 2 cards to complete a straight or flush.
Backdoor 2 card flush and 2 card straight draws with an over card. I would likely call. The backdoor draws mean a lot of turn cards will justify aggression. I’m defending a hand this weak because I have the structural advantage (position), and in most cases I’m not going to let this pot go without a fight. ♠
About Flop Textures part 1 part 2 

Laws of Combat (as it relates to Poker)

http://myartofwar.com/

Basic Laws of Combat
(as it relates to Poker)

1. You are not superman.
(Don't expect to win every hand)

2. Suppressive fires -- won't.
(Limping in can get you killed)

3. If it's stupid but works, it isn't stupid.
(Luck! Even a Donkey wins a hand now and then)

4. Don't look conspicuous -- it draws fire.
(Drawing attention to yourself makes you a target, too bold or too timid will result in challenges)

5. When in doubt, empty the magazine.
 (Go All-In when you smell fear, yours or theirs)

6. Never share a fighting hole with anyone braver than you are.
(Get out of the pot if bigger stacks attack)

7. Never forget your weapon was made by the lowest bidder.
(Limping in can explode on you)

8. If your attack is going really well, it's an ambush.
(Calling stations usually have something)

9. No plan survives the first contact intact.
(After the flop, all hands change)

10. All five second grenade fuses will burn down in three seconds.
(Holding on to draws usually backfires)

11. Try to look unimportant, because the bad guys may be low on ammo.
(Keep a low profile but play your good hands aggressively against low chip stacks)

12. If you are forward of your position, the artillery will fall short.
(First to act may get you shot)

13. The enemy diversion you are ignoring is the main attack.
(You are being slow played by a better hand)

14. The important things are always simple.
(Don't try to overplay a hand)

15. The simple things are always hard.
(AA doesn't win every hand)

16. The easy way is always mined.
(Catching the flop doesn't mean the Turn or River won't get trapped)

17. If you are short of everything except enemy, you are in combat.
(The less chips you have, the more likely you are to lose)

18. When you have secured an area, don't forget to tell the enemy.
(It's OK to declare victory before the river if you have the nuts)

19. Incoming fire has the right-of-way.
(Get out of the way of aggressive action if you don't have the nuts)

20. No combat ready unit has ever passed inspection.
(Top 10 hands don't always work)

21. If the enemy is in range, so are you.
(You can't avoid the enemy when you are heads-up)

22. Beer math: 37 men times 2 beers each equals 49 cases.
(Chips, you can never have enough of them)

23. Body count math: 3 bad guys plus 1 probable plus 2 pigs = 37 enemy killed in action.
(You must eliminate everyone, limpers and calling stations end up as Collateral damage)

24. Friendly fire - isn't.
(Expect to be attacked by anyone, even friends)

25. Things that must be together to work usually can't be shipped together.
(Most drawing hands don't catch)

26. Radios will fail as soon as you need fire support desperately.
(Your friends can't help you when you need them, no insurance)

27. Anything you do can get you shot -- including doing nothing.
(Being too passive is only slightly worse than being too aggressive)

28. If you make it too tough for the enemy to get in, you can't get out.
(Sometimes it's easy to get pot committed with less than the nuts)

29. Tracers work BOTH ways.
(Being too obvious can get you trapped)

30. The only thing more accurate than incoming enemy fire is incoming friendly fire.
(Your friends will stab you in the back, eventually)

31. If you take more than your fair share of objectives, you will have more than your fair share to take.
(Build your chip stack by making good choices with good cards and steal some pots)

32. When both sides are convinced they are about to lose, they're both right.
(Calling on the river usually means the worst hand could have won with a bet)

33. Professional soldiers are predictable, but the world is full of amateurs.
(You can't bluff a bad player, suck outs happen at the river)

34. Any significant military action will occur at the junction of two or more map sheets.
(After the flop, any street can turn a winning hand into a losing hand)

35. When the pin is pulled, Mr. Grenade is not our friend.
(Going All-In doesn't guarantee you a win)

36. Don't draw fire; it irritates the people around you.
(Playing out of turn will ruin your game)

37. Never tell the Platoon Sergeant you have nothing to do.
(Pay Attention! Looking bored will get you action)

Poker Rules Of Engagement

1. Bring an ACE. Preferably, bring at least two Royalty cards. Bring all of their friends who are connected to Royalty.
2. Anything worth betting on is worth a raise. Aggression is cheap. Passiveness is expensive.
3. Only hits count. The only thing worse than a miss is a slow miss.
4. If your image is predictable, you're probably not raising enough nor using position correctly.
5. Move away from your attacker. Distance is your friend. (Unless you have him out gunned, then draw him in for the kill.)
6. If you can choose what to bring to a shootout, bring an ACE and a friend of Royalty.
7. Ten years from now, no one will remember the details of the game, hand, or tactics. They will only remember who won.
8. If you are not betting, you should be observing, counting stacks, and tagging opponents.
9. Aggression is relative. This is a BIG one. (Most aggressive action will be more dependent on "pucker factor" than the inherent validity of the hand)
10. Use a position tactic that works every time.  (All skill is in vain when an big stack thinks you are weak)
11. If you are unsure of a course of action, do not attempt it. Timidity is dangerous, better to enter with boldness. The end is everything.
12. Always Lie; Conceal your intentions. Cultivate an air of unpredictability. 
13. Always have a plan and have a back-up plan, because the first one won't work.
14. Use cover or concealment as much as possible. The visible target should be in FRONT of your gun.
15. Do not give comfort or information to the enemy.
16. Don't drop your guard.
17. Challenge. The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging.
18. Create Fear. If your opponents aren’t sure what attacking you will cost, they will not want to find out.
19. Do not fight the LAST battle: Use Guerrilla Warfare of the Mind.
20. If you have the opportunity to eliminate your opponent, you must do it. It is the rule in war!
21. Be polite. Be professional. But have a plan to kill everyone you meet.
22. Be courteous to everyone, friendly to no one.
23. Everyone has a weakness. Find it and exploit it. 

Big Fish - Small Pond or Small Fish - Big Pond

After all, poker is just another Liar's game of "Go Fish". 
http://ljblue.blogspot.com/2010/04/poker-liars-game-of-go-fish.html

The goal is to be the biggest fish in the pond, no matter how many fish are in the pond and AA is usually the biggest fish in any pond. You could look at the Flop, Turn, and River as food to make you an even bigger fish.

The size of the bet could be considered the bait and it takes a big fish to eat lots of bait. Lots of bait tends to attract some fish and they may just be able to grow into a big enough fish to take all the bait. The action on the Flop, Turn and River will help determine when you should just cut your bait and run.

The first one in the pond usually thinks they can be a big fish, but the more fish there are in the pond, the bigger you have to be. You really don't want to be a small fish, like most drawing hands tend to be, in a big pond, like one with many players. You can also relate the size of the splash in relation to the size of the fish and some players really like to splash their chips into the pond. But is it a big fish splashing or a belly flop, both make big splashes?

The size of the pond is important too. Position helps you determine how big you need to be or if you have the potential to grow into a larger fish. I've seen a few dead whales on the beach, so AA isn't a sure thing, especially in a pond with lots of action. If there is only one other fish in the pond, jump in, the water tends to distort the size of the fish anyway.

MISTAKES! I've made a few -- recently!!!

OK. I swear that the cast from The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, will all sit at my table, sometime. 

I played in the First Annual Hollywood Park Casino Facebook Fan Tournament. Came in late because I was really looking to play some Sit-N-Go games and HPC has the only ones in town. They weren't spreading them because of the Facebook Fan Tournament, so I entered it.

I don't expect much from their tournaments, having played some in the past and even won a couple, but their tournaments are geared to Luck more then skill. Their deep stack tournaments, aren't really; and they also tend to be super fast races where your "M" will go from somewhere around 40 down to about 10 in the first hour.

This one was a little better, with 10,000 starting chips, 25/50 starting blinds and 20 minute levels, you start with an "M" of 200. The Scramble period happened as expected, about level 6, when middle stacks with loose players start trying to build chips. The Minefield happened, also as expected, at about level 11.

I had some good plays, some bad plays, and one ugly play.

I HAVE RULES, AND THEY SERVE ME WELL. 

BUT HERE, I DIDN'T LISTEN TO MY GUT OR ADHERE TO MY RULES!

https://sites.google.com/site/ljmangold/poker-guide/basic-game-play

Golden Rule:  Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself ~ What is this hand’s best possibility to win? Look to the LEFT, that's where the action has yet to come from!
Who is in this hand and what is their play style and stack size? Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for “Time”, randomly. Randomize Aggression.

• OK, I BROKE THIS ONE - when I didn't listen to my gut on the last hand I played.
  Got KK, sitting on enough chips to skate into the In-the-Money portion and should have either gone all-in pre-flop, or mucked them when A67 came in on the flop and the chip leader, at my table, made about a half pot sized bet. I didn't believe he was doing anything more than betting an under pair. My instinct said, when I saw my pocket Kings, "hope an Ace doesn't come on the flop". He had A5.

Rule # 1:  Survive! Always try to take the best hand and get heads up with someone or make it expensive for someone to try to complete a draw. Use the Odds, for you and against them!  You can break any rule except the Golden Rule & #1.

• OK, BROKE THIS ONE ALSO. (same hand, now two rules in play)
  Survive, means, "Get in the MONEY". It's ok to throw away KK or even AA, if you don't have the nuts or your are up against more chips than you have.

Rule #3: Never go all-in on a bluff until the final table and heads-up.

• BROKE THIS ONE TOO, 'nuf said. Not really a bluff, but, broke it. (Three rules broken on the same hand, who need rules?????)

The Good: Made a couple of timely bluffs, build up chips when able and got lucky once when I got trip Kings, with a 6 vs trip Kings with a 5, and we didn't have to chop.

The Bad: Didn't pay attention by playing out of turn -- twice. One would have doubled me up if I had not played out of turn.

The UGLY: We already talked about that.

All in all, it was a great experience and Hollywood Park Casino has made some nice improvements.

Loose Table vs Tight Table Strategy

Loose / passive table strategy.
There will usually be a gap between the hands that opponents are willing to limp and those that they will call a raise with.
passive opponents are more likely to call raises than re-raise you – so the first point is to tread carefully when you are called. possible to limp with more hands that have high implied odds value such as small pairs and suited connectors. These types of hands play well in multi-way pots.

After you flop a monster hand be careful not to blow your passive opponents out of the pot with big raises. Unless the board is particularly draw-heavy you should instead pick a bet size (see bet sizing) that is likely to be called – building the pot gradually so as to be paid the maximum.

The main problem with playing at passive tables is that it is slightly harder to build big pots.

Playing premium pairs at a passive table should usually involve raising to thin the field. Too small a raise can easily induce several of your loose opponents to enter the pot behind you with speculative holdings.

The ideal strategy to win at a loose / passive table is to become tight and aggressive – yet limp in with those hands with high implied-odds value as the situation warrants.

Loose / aggressive table strategy.
the only time you will be able to play small pair or suited connector type hands is when you are the last person to act. Most hands should be folded in early position, because is too much danger of a raise and a re-raise behind you.

Bet your premium hands big. You should be looking to get a large amount of money into the pot before the flop, preferably against a single opponent. If your loose/Aggressive player has possition on you, expect a raise or re-raise, so start with a small ball bet. The higher chance of a re-raise (or even a 4th raise all-in) makes playing these hands positively a profitable move.
http://www.thepokerbank.com/strategy/general/loose-table/

Learn to be aggressive


I kept getting bet out of the pot!

I'd have what I thought was a very strong hand, not the absolute nuts, but a good hand, maybe the best hand. I'd make my bet accordingly, say $35 to $50, and then someone would raise me to $150 or $200 and I'd fold.

I didn't really know it, but I was what you'd call "scared money". I had trouble risking $150-$200 on a hand that was not the absolute nuts.

Scared money does not win poker chips. I decided right then and there, that if I'm going to play Cash Poker, I absolutely have to be prepared to risk the bet on a single hand or single card. Over time this small change in attitude, my mindset, made all the difference. I soon found my opponents folding to my re-raises. I was winning bigger pots, my plays earned more respect,

Cash Poker takes a different mindset than Tournament Poker, and I finally figured out what it was for me. If I bust my daily Poker bankroll, I'll just go earn some more.
Article Source: http://EzineArticles.com/6008016

The Four Principles of Poker

From "Action Dan" Harrington

Principle No 1: The Strength Principle
In general, you want to bet your strong hands, check your mediocre hands, and fold (or sometimes bluff) with your weakest hands

That souldn’t be too hard - NOT?
Obviously you want to bet your very strong hands to build a bigger pot when you’re likely to win. With your middle hands you better check because it’s harder to make money when you bet these. Better hands than yours are likely to call or raise, while weak hands probably fold. Folding your weakest hands is quite obvious. Bluffing with your weakest hands might be not so obvious, but then again if the bluff works you’ve gained value from a hand that had none.

Principle no.2: The Agression Principle
In general, aggression (betting and raising) is better than passivity (checking and calling)

Aggressive actions have two possible outcomes:

1. your opponent could fold to your bet, or 
2. he could call your bet and you can win at the showdown. 

Passive actions in contrary have just one, at the showdown. 

2 options are better than 1.

Principle no.3: The Betting Principle
In general, a succesful bet must be able to do one of 3 things:

1. force a better hand to fold, 
2. force a weaker hand to call, or 
3. cause a drawing hand to draw to unfavorable odds.

A bet can thus make money in three ways.

1. If you can chase away a better hand, you won a pot you normally would have lost. 
2. If you get a weaker hand to call, you've got more money into the pot. 
3. The same goes if you let somebody call a draw at unfavorable odds

     If you don’t think a bet could accomplish one of these things, just don’t bet. 

Principle no.4: The Deception Principle
Never do the same thing all of the time.

This is quite clear. Be surprising, don’t act predictively! In order to be succesful at poker, you need your opponents to keep guessing about your bets.

The Three Principles of Poker

www.onlinefreeplaypoker.com

Playing poker well involves more than knowing which cards beat what. It involves more than memorising the percentages and odds. It involves more than being able to detect tells from changes in someone’s posture, or in the way they glanced at their chips. Understanding the overriding principles of poker is far more important and valuable than being “a good bluffer”. The basic principles of poker override all correct strategies and playing styles.

Here are the principles:

Patience

Patience is the key to successful poker. Whether you are playing in a cash game, or a tournament, you will need this attribute to be a consistent winner. Most hands that you are dealt in poker are not worth playing, and if you start playing trash hands, then your results will usually be trash too.

Occasionally you will be dealt unplayable cards hand after hand. It will seem that you are never going to get any worthwhile cards again, and you will be tempted to play a rubbish hand just because you haven’t played any for a while. Don’t let it get to you. All good players go through stretches where they have bad cards and have to fold, over and over again. Patience is one of the main points that separate the good players from the bad.

Bide your time, and only play hands when your cards and the situation are both right.

Aggression

Once you get the cards that you were waiting for, aggression becomes paramount. It is no good to get dealt AA, if all that happens is that you check and call on each round of betting.

If you have a hand that is likely to be the best, bet! If someone bets first, and you still think that your hand is better than their hand, raise. Get as much money into the pot as you can. Get it all in if your hand is strong enough and your opponent is inclined to play along with you.

When betting with a strong hand you either want to get more money into the pot when someone calls you with a worse hand, or you want to win the pot immediately (which stops a worse hand getting lucky and hitting a card that would beat you).  Sometimes your opponent will call with a worse hand, and then beat you with a lucky card anyway. Don’t let that bother you. As long as you get your money in as a favourite, you’ve played correctly.

Using aggression to get maximum value from good hands is one of the most important principles of poker.

Deception

The deception principle is this: all actions you take must contain at least an element of deception.

It is very important in poker that you don’t allow your opponents to learn exactly how you play. If you are playing Texas Hold ’em and raise to $20 when you have Aces, $18 when you have Kings, $16 when you have Queens, $14 when you have Jacks etc, it won’t take long for your opponents to work out what you are doing.

But if you raise with Aces 85% of the time, and 15% of the time just call or limp, then your opponents can’t ever be completely certain what you have.

Raising the same amount whenever you decide raise also makes it harder for your opponents to work out what you have. Let’s say you decide to raise to $10 about 85% of the times that you are dealt AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ, and just call the other 15% of the time. Now it becomes very hard for your opponents to work out what you have. Because you are usually raising with good hands (as you should) but occasionally just calling with exactly the same hands, you make yourself harder to read.

Let’s take the concept a step further. Let’s say you decide on a strategy that involves calling with pocket 2’s through to pocket 10s, and you decide 80% of the time is a good percentage to call. The remaining 20% of the time you raise.

Now even if you opponents knew your strategy exactly, they still wouldn’t know if your raise means that you have AA or just 22. They can’t tell what you have when you just call either, because you might have 44, or you might have AK.

You have made your moves much more difficult for your opponents to read, and anything that makes your opponents’ job harder, is to your advantage.

If you can master the three principles of poker, then you should be the one walking away with the money.

The Two Strategic principles of poker

WinPokerNow.info

Principle 1 – The goal is to earn money. 

The goal of Poker is not playing up to the players but to earn money.

If you’re having fun, note the players around the table and the gains and losses for each. You’ll see that most of the losers are those who play the most games. Keep in mind that some players look for luck, and occasionally find it and their stack will grow until bad luck also finds them, because they are playing too many hands. You want to play against those players that look for luck, but play only the good hands and you will reap rewards from their bad luck.

Why? Because they often engage in more hands, as they have weak cards in hands that will not allow them to beat their opponents.

Principle 2 – Play the good parts 

Ask yourself the question: What differentiates your game than your opponents?

Answer: Your 2 pocket cards. Everything starts from pre-flop action.

You must commit yourself to a hand only if your pockets cards give you an edge over your opponents or a reasonable probability of success.

And psychologically in all this, where is the famous bluff in Poker? Contrary to popular belief, bluffing is rarely used and not even a practice used very much by professionals in Poker, except in heads up play and short handed games. Before talking about psychology, talk about technique and strategy. Continually read about and watch good poker.

The Peter Principle and Poker

The Peter Principle and Poker
@Flop Turn River
 For those of you who aren't familiar with it, the peter principle states that, "successful members of a hierarchical organization are eventually promoted to their highest level of competence, after which further promotion raises them to a level at which they are not competent." I think that this often applies to poker.

These types of stories seem way to common. Person X starts w/ a $100 initial deposit and quickly builds it up to $300 or so playing $10 NL. They then move up to $25 NL...all goes well and their bankroll swells to $1000 dollars. They, again, promote themselves to $50 NL and things go great! Their bankroll soars to $3000 and they are running hot. Then, they move up to $100 NL and...Disaster. They are getting stacked left and right. Their monsters never get paid off and their bankroll is decimated. Soon they have dropped 2/3 of their buy in and are faced with either dropping down a level or busting out completely. Now their ego comes in and tells them that they shouldn't drop down as they are "too good" for these limits etc. Before they know it they are broke and forced to grind it out w/$50 at 10 NL again.

I think that this is a situation where a poker player falls victim to the peter principle. In effect, he continues to promote himself up levels too quickly when he has not played enough hands at that level to truly judge his competence. This is worsened by the fact that he or she could simply be running hot at a level where they are not truly skilled enough to play at and when his or her game is full of leaks. Once they reach a level at which they are not competent their ego refuses to let them back off and plug leaks at the low limits and destroys them completely.

To avoid the peter principle, I suggest getting software like poker tracker and track the number of BB won per 100 hands over 30K hands or so. This will give you a great idea of whether or not you are truly beating the game. I also suggest not immediately moving up to a new level when you have the right bankroll to do it. Play a certain number of hands in each level and observe the other games before you move up. Put the oppents hands into PT and see how they play. Know what you are up against and choose your games wisely! Think of this as getting reconnaissance on the other players. Poker is a game of information and the more you have the easier it is.

In closing, Don't fall victim to the peter principle. Know your skill level, know your opponents, know your limits and don't move up just because you have a nice bankroll.

Another view comes from @CardSharp
“In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence” - Dr. Lawrence Peter, The Peter Principle
“In a cardroom, every player tends to move up until he can no longer beat the game”.

Any plan for your poker career must insure that your skills increase at a rate adequate to keep up with the stakes you are playing. If your plan doesn’t account for this, it is doomed to failure.

Conservative Bankroll Management

I've chosen to call the process of managing your career such that you stay in games you can beat “Conservative Bankroll Management” but it could just as easily be “Conservative Poker Career Management” - that’s just not as catchy. In any case, here’s what I believe you have to know and do to avoid the Peter Principle trap:
@In Defense Of Grinding - The ‘Peter Principle’ And Poker

Limping & Sun-Tzu

I was watching one of the poker shows on TV, I try to record most of them. One of the announcers asked the other, "I wonder what The Art of War (Sun-Tzu) has to say about limping?"
Being a advocate of The Art of War and Poker, I thought I'd take a look at it. There has already been a good book on the subject written by David Apostolico, Tournament Poker and the Art of War, and there is also a web site devoted to it. Sun Tzu's Art of Poker

From "The Art of War" by Sun-Tzu
In battle, there are not more than two methods of attack:
the direct -betting/raising- and the indirect -checking/limping-;
These two in combination give rise to an endless series of maneuvers.
The direct and the indirect lead on to each other in turn.

It is like moving in a circle — you never come to an end.

Masking strength with weakness is to be effected by tactical dispositions.
Thus one who is skillful at keeping the enemy on the move maintains deceitful appearances, according to which the enemy will act.
He sacrifices something, (so) the enemy may snatch at it.

• Simulated disorder postulates perfect discipline, 
• Simulated fear postulates courage; 
• Simulated weakness postulates strength.

If we wish to fight, the enemy can be forced to an engagement even though he (is) sheltered behind a high rampart and a deep ditch -a wall of chips-. All we need do is attack some other place that he will be obliged to relieve.
If we do not wish to fight, we can prevent the enemy from engaging us even though the lines of our encampment be merely traced out on the ground. All we need do is to throw something odd and unaccountable in his way -Randomness.

• The rule is, not to besiege walled cities if it can possibly be avoided.

By holding out baits -limping/slow playing-, he keeps him on the march; then with a body of picked men he lies in wait for him.
By holding out advantages -showing weakness- to him, he can cause the enemy to approach of his own accord; or, by inflicting damage, he can make it impossible for the enemy to draw near.

Whoever is first -to act-with-active or passive Aggression- in the field and awaits the coming of the enemy, will be fresh for the fight; whoever is second in the field and has to hasten to battle - will arrive exhausted.

• Hence that general is skillful in attack whose opponent does not know what to defend; and he is skillful in defense whose opponent does not know what to attack.

Numerical weakness - lack of chips - comes from having to prepare against possible attacks; numerical strength -many chips-, (by) compelling our adversary to make these preparations against us.

• Though the enemy be stronger in numbers, we may prevent him from fighting. 
• Scheme so as to discover his plans and the likelihood of their success.

If we are able thus to attack an inferior force with a superior one, our opponents will be in dire straits.

• When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men’s weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be damped.

Do not repeat the tactics which have gained you one victory, but let your methods be regulated by the infinite variety of circumstances -Randomness- .

Water shapes its course according to the nature of the ground over which it flows;
the soldier works out his victory in relation to the foe whom he is facing.
Therefore, just as water retains no constant shape, so in warfare there are no constant conditions. He who can modify his tactics -Randomness- in relation to his opponent and thereby succeed in winning, may be called a heaven-born captain.

• So in war, the way is to avoid what is strong and to strike at what is weak.

Hollywood Park Poker & Ponies 10k guaranted

It's a crap shoot. But I actually won a couple of them and finished in the money a few times.
Patience vs Speed and Utility

Low Patience Factor makes it a fast tournament and Low Utility limits your skill.

In an aggressive game, the teaser 1st level may give you one or two hands to try to make a good play. After the 1st level you are down to 30 or less Big Blinds if you haven't doubled up. Starting the 3rd level you are down to one or two playable hands! The Minefield starts at Level 5.

Good Luck, because that's what you need to make it far in this crap shoot.

Binion's $100 Daily Deep Stack PF & UF

The end of a great era! The only reason to venture down to Old Las Vegas is to view the overhead show and get a souvenir from Binions and the Golden Nugget Casino.
Binions deep stack tournament is still good to play, just to say you did. The tournament is good for the first hour or so, you can still use some skill to grow your stack. Depends on how many enter the tournament.
Patience vs Speed and Utility

Patience vs Speed & Utility

https://sites.google.com/site/ljmangold/home/poker-strategy/patience-vs-speed-and-utility
From Arnold Snyder's Tournament Formula Poker 2
A must read for any tournament player, it's all about Deep Stack Poker tournaments.

The blind structure in relation to the number of chips each player starts with is the primary consideration on deciding if you should even enter a tournament, yet alone on what your strategy should be. The lower the patience factor, the more aggressive you have to be. The lower the patience factor, the more luck prevails over skill. 

The Patience or Speed Factor (PF) is the first step in determining how, or even if, you should play any tournament.

First you need the tournament structure sheet that shows how many chips you start with, what the starting blinds are and how ofter they are raised.

Starting Chips = $1000       Full Table (9 players)
Level    Blinds+Anties    Total    Time til blinds raise    Cumulative    M (# Big Blinds)
   1          25/25              50            20 Minutes            50             (40) (1000/25)
   2          25/50              75            20 Minutes           125            
   3          50/100          150            20 Minutes           275 
                                     (end of 1st hour)
   4         100/200          300            20 Minutes           575  
   5         100/200+25     425            20 Minutes          1000  

The amount of time it takes to "Blind Off" all your chips, without ever actually making a bet, is the Patience Factor, also the beginning the Minefield. In the above example you will be out of chips after 1 hour and 40 minutes, or 1.67 hours. Square that and you have the (PF) Patience Factor, in this case, 2.76 (Level 1). Which means you will most likely be all-in on the first hand you play, if you have to go to the river, as this would be a FAST Tournament. Anything less the Level 4, is a short stack tournament, no need to even look at the Utility Factor (UF).

(PF) Patience Factor Skill Level
1.49 or less	0
1.50 to 2.99	1
3.00 to 4.49	2
4.50 to 5.99	3
6.00 to 7.49	4
7.50 to 9.99	5
10.00 and up	6

The Minefield portion of the tournament is where you will see many players, mostly short stacked, making a last ditch effort to remain in the tournament or chip leaders trying to pick-off the dead money. This is also where players try to get past the bubble. Lots of All-in betting.

 The Utility Factor (UF) is the 2nd step in determining how, or even if, you should play any tournament. Think again that your chips are ammunition, not just chips. The more chips you have, the better you can utilize them. The higher your utility factor, the more power and flexibility you have. Your utility is based on having at least an "M" of 60, In the above example, you are only 67% competitive. Divide your "M" by the basic competitive "M", to give you your competitive factor, in this case 40/60 = .67 "U" (utility). Multiply your Patience Factor times your "U" to get your Utility Factor, in this case it's, 1.79.

Clearly this is not a tournament worth playing, but it is typical for a "Shoot Out" Tournament where the winner of each table meets at the final table to play for the big prize, and starting chips may be doubled.

Your Utility Factor (UF) can range from 0 to over 200, which gives you ranks from 0 to 6.

A range from 0 to 40 and a rank of 0 to 2 is a short stacked tournament. A range from 41 to 100 gives you a ranking from 3 to 4 and good utility. A range from 101 to over 200 gives you a ranking from 5 to 6 and full utility.

UTILITY FACTOR
Quick Reference Chart (Adjusted to Patience Factor)
	Utility Factor	Rank	Comments
Short                         Stacked	0-5	0	Not a pro-level event, a crapshootat best.	KP
	6-20	1	Low utility from the start, take early risks to double up, mostlyLong Ball, often a crapshoot by midpoint in tournament.	RCB
	21-40	2	Low utility by second hour, some small ball may be possible in early levels, go for an early double-up. Very fast in-the-money portion	Zone
Deep            Stacked	41-60	3	About two hours of competitive utility, more Small Ball is possible, fast by the money phase, good for aggressive semi-pros, still some ability to play at the final table.	AoW
	61-100	4	Good utility for small ball, more trouble for amateurs, early chip accumulation can keep utility until the end, becomes mostly Long Ball by the money portion.	AoW/SB
	101-200	5	Full utility possible all the way to the final table, pros will dominate, Small Ball skills will pay well.	SB/SA
	201+	6	Full utility from start to finish, pros rule, amateurs will be knocked out, high-end poker skills and top tournament skills required.	M/C

If you are not using these to determine which tournament relies more on Skill or Luck, you might as well be playing Roulette.

I NEVER BLUFF

Way Ahead or Way Behind?

How many hands can beat you? What's your position? Who are you up against?

I forgot this concept when I had JJ, in position, recently, in a live ring game. Dealt JJ the hand before and got an easy win. The gods must have been smiling, or smirking, when on the exact next hand I got JJ - again, called a small raise, everyone else folded, so I was heads up against a good, loose aggressive player. The flop went something like 952, rainbow, and he bet about half the pot and I called. The turn was something like a 7, he bets about half the pot, I raise the pot, he re-raises, and I go crazy stupid All-in and get called. He shows QQ, the river is a King.

What was I thinking? I wasn't!
You hold an over pair to the board, but it's not the nuts! The boards not scary, but you could be behind a set, even 2nd or third best set, yet alone the top set. You could be behind the three top pocket pairs that can beat you.
You could be way ahead of any other hand and up against a drawing hand, or NOT.

A "Way Ahead or Way Behind" situation requires the following:

• You are heads up, before or after the flop, and you at least have a pocket pair or paired the board on the flop.
• You do not know whether you are ahead or behind?
• If you are ahead, your opponent has very few outs (typically two or three).
• If you are behind, you have very few outs.

Pot control is the key!

Controlling the size of the pot in your favor is crucial to your success as a poker player. The theory is simple: reduce your losses to a minimum and increase your winnings to a maximum.

When you have hands on the extreme ends of the scale, putting this theory into practice is fairly easy - if you have the nuts, you pump the pot; if you have rags, you fold. According to the theory of pot control, you should be working to maximize your profit in this situation. Only a few of the possible starting hands will have your hand dominated here.

If you automatically fold every single time you're in this situation, you'll lose every pot. The amount you lose will only be equal to that of your preflop contributions. This is a small loss, but a guaranteed one nonetheless.

Before you can decide how to play the hand, you have to figure out which opposing hands are good for it, and which hands are bad for it. Any constant loss is a leak in your game; too many leaks and you'll cease to float.

The players with a hand better than yours will be wanting to extract maximum value from their hands as well. Oftentimes, unless you can discern a very good reason to do otherwise, you want to control the pot, and keep it small by betting and checking. Usually you want to play Small Ball.

Who's bluffing?
Players are less inclined to bluff at a small pot, helping to eliminate the risk of the worse hands stealing the pot away from you. It also allows you to make bluffs and moves with less risk. The smaller the pot is, the less money it takes to make a bluff at it.

Don't get greedy! It will ruin your game!

Your goal is to extract as much, if not more, value from the hands you beat as you give to the hands that beat you. The times you successfully bluff a stronger hand into folding should be enough to render your hand profitable.

The most important concept to remember with a way ahead/way behind hand is that the only players willing to call a large bet will be the players who have you beat. For this reason you want to avoid large bets and large pots. Control the action, control the pot and wait for your spots to punish your opponents.

While "Way Ahead or Way Behind" confrontations are somewhat common, you must be careful to identify them correctly. If your opponent is semi-bluffing, for example, with eight, nine, or more outs, you must play far more aggressively. Only when you can be sure you are in a textbook "Way Ahead or Way Behind" situation can you afford the passive play that typically optimizes your results.

For the most part, poker is not an adrenaline-crazed action game, it's a patience game. The players who are able to control the pots, and play the grind, are the ones who still have chips left when the perfect situation arises.

Play strong, play smart and when you are dealt the nuts, 

milk it for all it's worth.

http://www.pokerlistings.com/search?searchString=trouble+spots