FLOP RANKINGS

Currently reading Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hanson.

If you have every watched poker on TV, you know they don't show every hand played. This makes it hard for new players to learn what hand to play and when to play them and how to play them. One of the chief reasons I think there are more aggressive players in the games than a few years ago. Gus Hanson takes you through most, not every, of the hands he was dealt when he won the Aussie Poker Millions tournament in 2007.

I'm about a third of the way thourgh and it looks like Gus is really only playing in hands he thinks he can get heads up in, unless he has a top hand. Most of the hands he plays are payed aggressively, from any position. The players appear to be less aggressive than you see on TV, which could be missleading, but may be due to not really knowing about the hands he is not in.

Still, it shows how aggression will win pots that would be lost if you didn't try to reduce the field and try to get heads up. Which leads to some thinking about reading the board again and what you are likely up against.

I like to rate the board, especially when I'm not in the hand, and see if I can figure out who has what. I rate flops from A+ to C, because even what some might consider a D type of nothing flop can lead to a monster on the end, but most players aren't going to go to the Turn or River without a hand that has the potential to win, unless you like to gamble or you're a Mental Midget.

FLOP RATINGS
A+
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
Royal Flush, (Ace + K-Q-J) +/- gapped
Straight Flush (any) +/- gapped
Trips (any)
High Pair (AA-TT) + 1 Broadway card (A-T)

A
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
3 Broadway Cards (AKQJT) +/- 2 are Suited or Gapped
2 Broadway Cards + Suited card less than a Ten
High Pair (AA-KK) - NO other Broadway Card
Ace Suited + 1 Broadway card, not suited

B+
(likely to hit more than one player - can lead to Big Pots - but may be 50/50 race)
High Pair (QQ-JJ-TT) - NO other Broadway Card
Middle Pairs (99-88-77-66) + Ace
3 Suited cards
Ace Suited with a card lower than a Ten
Ace non-Suited + 1 Broadway card
2 Broadway cards + 1 card less than a Ten

B
(hits limpers the most)
Middle Pair (99-88-77-66)  + K-Q-J - NO Ace
Ace + Low Pair (22-55)
Pair lower than a Ten + K-Q-J
Ace - non-Suited + Middle Connectors (9876)
J or T + 98 +/- 2 are Suited
3 middle connectors - (9876) +/- gap

B-
1 Broadway + 2 cards lower than a Ten
Low Pair (22-55) with NO Ace

C+
Low Straight (2345) +/- suited or gapped

C
anything else

The Turn and the River can change anything, but the right play on the Flop may cut out the draws that can win on the last two streets.

I NEVER BLUFF

RANKING HANDS AND POINT SYSTEMS

Lets agree that an Ace is the highest card in the deck and is worth the highest points. There are probably as many point systems for poker as there are poker games and the various ways to play them. I think it's best to keep it simple, so I rank the Ace the highest, by about 2 points and the rest at about face value. My point system adds for pairs, connectors and suited cards, since an AA or AK should have a higher value than AT or A9 or A4.

An Ace therefore would be worth 12 points and a K,Q,J,T would all be worth 10.
Since Kings out rank Jacks and Tens, it should really have a higher rank than 10. and giving a higher rank also to Jacks, so we should probably give a one point advantage of Jacks over Tens, which makes a Jack worth 11, Queen worth 12 and King worth 13. Now the Ace should have that 2 point advantage, so I'll give it 15 points.

It's hard to put a value on a pair since 22 will win heads up about 55% of the time and only 12% against a full table and beats AK. Given that a deuce has about a 2 point rank and only 4 points counting both cards, based on face value, and AK would have a value of twenty-eight (15 for the Ace and 13 for the King), we should give a factor to pairs, suited cards and connectors. We'll start a Pair off at 20 points and add a point for card value. We will also add one point for being connected and 2 points for being suited and 3 points if it's connected and suited.

So the lowest pair (22) would equal 22 points and a pair of threes (33) would equal 23 points and a pair of nines (99) would equal 29 points and add one point higher for each broadway card; TT=30 (20+10), JJ=31 (20+11), and QQ=32 (20+12), KK=33 (20+13), and AA=35 (20+15)
22 vs AKs;
AKs = 31 points [(15+13) +1 for the connector, +2 for being suited] vs the 2 deuces @ 22 points.

If you loosly equate it to odds, then AKs would be favored 31/22 or about 1.4:1. (actually 1.409, but a tenth of a point is really no consideration in betting or looking at odds of any kind, not a factor at all, so round up) and KK vs AKs; KK would be favored 33/31 or 1.06:1.
KK vs 22, KK favored 33/22 or 1.5:1

What's all this mean?
Only that you shouldn't bet the farm. At best, heads up you are usually about 49/51, more likely about 60/40 and at worst only a 3:1 dog, using normal odds, and normal hands for All-In bets, and the point system would only show a slight advantage, since it all changes by the river, and you can throw any point system out the window.

Favorite-to-underdog matchup Probability Odds, discounting suitability

Pair vs. 2 undercards (AA vs KQ is only slightly better than 88 vs 34)
83% to 17% or 4.9 : 1

Pair vs. lower pair (AA vs KK about the same as 88 vs 33)
82% to 18% or 4.5 : 1

Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard (KK vs AQ not much better than 88 vs 97)
71% to 29% or 2.5 : 1

2 overcards vs. 2 undercards (AK vs QJ about the same as 98 vs 76)
63% to 37% or 1.7 : 1

Pair vs. 2 overcards (QQ vs AK and 88 vs 9T)
55% to 45% or 1.2 : 1

Max points are 35 for the AA and minimum is 6 for the 23, 5 at face value, plus 1 for being connected. In a normal counting system, many people will play any hand with 2 cards totaling 18 or higher, which would be an 8 and 10, or any pair. Aggressive players like Daniel Negreanu, will add some connectors and suited cards to their range. Some say any cards that can be connected on the flop, like one or 2 gaps, or even 3 gaps, are connectors. and look for luck to help them with a miracle flop.

This point system adds up to 3 points which lets you reasonably increase your range of cards by giving an 89 a 18 point count becuse it's connected, or 19 points if suited, and 20 points if it's both.

In a normal count a KK would count the same as a TT, where this system gives a better value for KK at 33 points and significally better than the 89 which is only 3 points lower the the normal KK of 20 points.
Now a hand of JJ at 31 points against the 18 to 20 points players normally use would be 31/18 or 1.72:1.

You can use to help decide how much to bet or raise against a normal hand if you end up heads up and in position against the range of hands people play, depending on their position. It makes your hand look stronger, because it is.

Can you use it as a betting tool on the flop?
Look at it compared to the flop rating system: A+, A, B+, etc.
How about betting about 1.72 more than the normal bet? If the normal bet is 3 times the big blind, you could make it a little more than 4.5 times the big blind (3+1.72) if you have a 31 point hand vs a normal 20 piont hand. Pro's seem to like to make normal bets look different, like a $325 bet when $300 is 3 times the big blind or $16,200 when a $15,000 bet is the normal bet.

I NEVER BLUFF