MISTAKES! I've made a few -- recently!!!

OK. I swear that the cast from The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly, will all sit at my table, sometime. 

I played in the First Annual Hollywood Park Casino Facebook Fan Tournament. Came in late because I was really looking to play some Sit-N-Go games and HPC has the only ones in town. They weren't spreading them because of the Facebook Fan Tournament, so I entered it.

I don't expect much from their tournaments, having played some in the past and even won a couple, but their tournaments are geared to Luck more then skill. Their deep stack tournaments, aren't really; and they also tend to be super fast races where your "M" will go from somewhere around 40 down to about 10 in the first hour.

This one was a little better, with 10,000 starting chips, 25/50 starting blinds and 20 minute levels, you start with an "M" of 200. The Scramble period happened as expected, about level 6, when middle stacks with loose players start trying to build chips. The Minefield happened, also as expected, at about level 11.

I had some good plays, some bad plays, and one ugly play.

I HAVE RULES, AND THEY SERVE ME WELL. 

BUT HERE, I DIDN'T LISTEN TO MY GUT OR ADHERE TO MY RULES!

https://sites.google.com/site/ljmangold/poker-guide/basic-game-play

Golden Rule:  Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself ~ What is this hand’s best possibility to win? Look to the LEFT, that's where the action has yet to come from!
Who is in this hand and what is their play style and stack size? Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for “Time”, randomly. Randomize Aggression.

• OK, I BROKE THIS ONE - when I didn't listen to my gut on the last hand I played.
  Got KK, sitting on enough chips to skate into the In-the-Money portion and should have either gone all-in pre-flop, or mucked them when A67 came in on the flop and the chip leader, at my table, made about a half pot sized bet. I didn't believe he was doing anything more than betting an under pair. My instinct said, when I saw my pocket Kings, "hope an Ace doesn't come on the flop". He had A5.

Rule # 1:  Survive! Always try to take the best hand and get heads up with someone or make it expensive for someone to try to complete a draw. Use the Odds, for you and against them!  You can break any rule except the Golden Rule & #1.

• OK, BROKE THIS ONE ALSO. (same hand, now two rules in play)
  Survive, means, "Get in the MONEY". It's ok to throw away KK or even AA, if you don't have the nuts or your are up against more chips than you have.

Rule #3: Never go all-in on a bluff until the final table and heads-up.

• BROKE THIS ONE TOO, 'nuf said. Not really a bluff, but, broke it. (Three rules broken on the same hand, who need rules?????)

The Good: Made a couple of timely bluffs, build up chips when able and got lucky once when I got trip Kings, with a 6 vs trip Kings with a 5, and we didn't have to chop.

The Bad: Didn't pay attention by playing out of turn -- twice. One would have doubled me up if I had not played out of turn.

The UGLY: We already talked about that.

All in all, it was a great experience and Hollywood Park Casino has made some nice improvements.

The Three Principles of Poker

www.onlinefreeplaypoker.com

Playing poker well involves more than knowing which cards beat what. It involves more than memorising the percentages and odds. It involves more than being able to detect tells from changes in someone’s posture, or in the way they glanced at their chips. Understanding the overriding principles of poker is far more important and valuable than being “a good bluffer”. The basic principles of poker override all correct strategies and playing styles.

Here are the principles:

Patience

Patience is the key to successful poker. Whether you are playing in a cash game, or a tournament, you will need this attribute to be a consistent winner. Most hands that you are dealt in poker are not worth playing, and if you start playing trash hands, then your results will usually be trash too.

Occasionally you will be dealt unplayable cards hand after hand. It will seem that you are never going to get any worthwhile cards again, and you will be tempted to play a rubbish hand just because you haven’t played any for a while. Don’t let it get to you. All good players go through stretches where they have bad cards and have to fold, over and over again. Patience is one of the main points that separate the good players from the bad.

Bide your time, and only play hands when your cards and the situation are both right.

Aggression

Once you get the cards that you were waiting for, aggression becomes paramount. It is no good to get dealt AA, if all that happens is that you check and call on each round of betting.

If you have a hand that is likely to be the best, bet! If someone bets first, and you still think that your hand is better than their hand, raise. Get as much money into the pot as you can. Get it all in if your hand is strong enough and your opponent is inclined to play along with you.

When betting with a strong hand you either want to get more money into the pot when someone calls you with a worse hand, or you want to win the pot immediately (which stops a worse hand getting lucky and hitting a card that would beat you).  Sometimes your opponent will call with a worse hand, and then beat you with a lucky card anyway. Don’t let that bother you. As long as you get your money in as a favourite, you’ve played correctly.

Using aggression to get maximum value from good hands is one of the most important principles of poker.

Deception

The deception principle is this: all actions you take must contain at least an element of deception.

It is very important in poker that you don’t allow your opponents to learn exactly how you play. If you are playing Texas Hold ’em and raise to $20 when you have Aces, $18 when you have Kings, $16 when you have Queens, $14 when you have Jacks etc, it won’t take long for your opponents to work out what you are doing.

But if you raise with Aces 85% of the time, and 15% of the time just call or limp, then your opponents can’t ever be completely certain what you have.

Raising the same amount whenever you decide raise also makes it harder for your opponents to work out what you have. Let’s say you decide to raise to $10 about 85% of the times that you are dealt AA, KK, QQ, AK, or AQ, and just call the other 15% of the time. Now it becomes very hard for your opponents to work out what you have. Because you are usually raising with good hands (as you should) but occasionally just calling with exactly the same hands, you make yourself harder to read.

Let’s take the concept a step further. Let’s say you decide on a strategy that involves calling with pocket 2’s through to pocket 10s, and you decide 80% of the time is a good percentage to call. The remaining 20% of the time you raise.

Now even if you opponents knew your strategy exactly, they still wouldn’t know if your raise means that you have AA or just 22. They can’t tell what you have when you just call either, because you might have 44, or you might have AK.

You have made your moves much more difficult for your opponents to read, and anything that makes your opponents’ job harder, is to your advantage.

If you can master the three principles of poker, then you should be the one walking away with the money.

The Two Strategic principles of poker

WinPokerNow.info

Principle 1 – The goal is to earn money. 

The goal of Poker is not playing up to the players but to earn money.

If you’re having fun, note the players around the table and the gains and losses for each. You’ll see that most of the losers are those who play the most games. Keep in mind that some players look for luck, and occasionally find it and their stack will grow until bad luck also finds them, because they are playing too many hands. You want to play against those players that look for luck, but play only the good hands and you will reap rewards from their bad luck.

Why? Because they often engage in more hands, as they have weak cards in hands that will not allow them to beat their opponents.

Principle 2 – Play the good parts 

Ask yourself the question: What differentiates your game than your opponents?

Answer: Your 2 pocket cards. Everything starts from pre-flop action.

You must commit yourself to a hand only if your pockets cards give you an edge over your opponents or a reasonable probability of success.

And psychologically in all this, where is the famous bluff in Poker? Contrary to popular belief, bluffing is rarely used and not even a practice used very much by professionals in Poker, except in heads up play and short handed games. Before talking about psychology, talk about technique and strategy. Continually read about and watch good poker.

The Peter Principle and Poker

The Peter Principle and Poker
@Flop Turn River
 For those of you who aren't familiar with it, the peter principle states that, "successful members of a hierarchical organization are eventually promoted to their highest level of competence, after which further promotion raises them to a level at which they are not competent." I think that this often applies to poker.

These types of stories seem way to common. Person X starts w/ a $100 initial deposit and quickly builds it up to $300 or so playing $10 NL. They then move up to $25 NL...all goes well and their bankroll swells to $1000 dollars. They, again, promote themselves to $50 NL and things go great! Their bankroll soars to $3000 and they are running hot. Then, they move up to $100 NL and...Disaster. They are getting stacked left and right. Their monsters never get paid off and their bankroll is decimated. Soon they have dropped 2/3 of their buy in and are faced with either dropping down a level or busting out completely. Now their ego comes in and tells them that they shouldn't drop down as they are "too good" for these limits etc. Before they know it they are broke and forced to grind it out w/$50 at 10 NL again.

I think that this is a situation where a poker player falls victim to the peter principle. In effect, he continues to promote himself up levels too quickly when he has not played enough hands at that level to truly judge his competence. This is worsened by the fact that he or she could simply be running hot at a level where they are not truly skilled enough to play at and when his or her game is full of leaks. Once they reach a level at which they are not competent their ego refuses to let them back off and plug leaks at the low limits and destroys them completely.

To avoid the peter principle, I suggest getting software like poker tracker and track the number of BB won per 100 hands over 30K hands or so. This will give you a great idea of whether or not you are truly beating the game. I also suggest not immediately moving up to a new level when you have the right bankroll to do it. Play a certain number of hands in each level and observe the other games before you move up. Put the oppents hands into PT and see how they play. Know what you are up against and choose your games wisely! Think of this as getting reconnaissance on the other players. Poker is a game of information and the more you have the easier it is.

In closing, Don't fall victim to the peter principle. Know your skill level, know your opponents, know your limits and don't move up just because you have a nice bankroll.

Another view comes from @CardSharp
“In a hierarchy, every employee tends to rise to his level of incompetence” - Dr. Lawrence Peter, The Peter Principle
“In a cardroom, every player tends to move up until he can no longer beat the game”.

Any plan for your poker career must insure that your skills increase at a rate adequate to keep up with the stakes you are playing. If your plan doesn’t account for this, it is doomed to failure.

Conservative Bankroll Management

I've chosen to call the process of managing your career such that you stay in games you can beat “Conservative Bankroll Management” but it could just as easily be “Conservative Poker Career Management” - that’s just not as catchy. In any case, here’s what I believe you have to know and do to avoid the Peter Principle trap:
@In Defense Of Grinding - The ‘Peter Principle’ And Poker

Poker's Black Friday

April 15th, 2011. Poker's Black Friday.
Fortunately I only play for real money in live games and I didn't have any real money there. I've never really trusted online poker since Neteller stole what little real money I had put into the online games. I eventually got it back, as I expect most of the players will this time also. It will be interesting to see how the online poker millionaires recover from having their money frozen in time. Since the DOJ closed down the four major online poker sites, Poker Stars, Full Tilt, Absolute Poker and Ultimate Bet Poker, most of the blogs from the pros are about how slow the games are in Veges. 30 hands an hour is ultra slow motion poker to an online poker junky.

Game play is down at all of the online poker sites world wide. There are still some sites that accept US players in real money games, but that may not last long. All of them still allow play money games, so that has not changed.  Online poker is still a great way to develop and improve your game. If aggression is king, online poker is your kingdom. Online poker will not be going away any time soon. It has changed for now, but it will change again, and most likely for the better. One article likened it to the collapse of the stock market and 401k pension plans.

There has been some speculation about online poker being totally dead in the US - forever - and most of the play will go to the brick and mortar games. Even though the DOJ has stated that the money in players accounts is accessible  to the players, there are no payment processors in the US. American poker players are hitting the casinos and card rooms, however most of the casinos and card rooms have had only a slight increase in activity.

I actually expect this to be a good thing for poker in the US, in the long run. I think that the regular casinos, card rooms, and Indian casinos will find a way to establish online poker for the US. Uncle Sam only wants to find a way to collect taxes from it and regulate it better. I think you will be able to go the a local casino or card room and open an online account without using the internet, which would be a much easier process. You could then just go down to the casino or card room and make deposits or withdrawals, just like a bank. Poker Stars and the rest of them may never be back, but new sites will find a way in.

Black Swans and random swings in luck

Black Swans are unknown unknown catastrophes or miracles, as opposed to known unknown coincidences or known known events, based on 4 things regarding knowledge, things you know that you know, things you know that you don't know, things that you don't know that you know, and things that you don't know that you don't know. I think more things are turning into things that I don't know that I know (forgot).

Trying to account for random occurrences in chance by looking for swings in the probability of success or disaster when you can't predict a Black Swan occurrence is really futile. The best you can hope for is to limit your disasters or losses and protect your successes or gains. You do this by setting limits and keeping within those limits or at least protecting part of your successes while hoping for a Black Swan miracle.

There are those who advocate continuing to play when you are on a losing streak, because you know you are playing correctly and those who advocate cutting your losses, because psychologically you're just playing head games with yourself. I think the smart thing is to at least take a break to regroup or reassess your play and the players in the game.

Whether it's playing poker (cash games) and looking for your hand to improve, your stack to grow or playing roulette and praying your number hits, if you're calculating the probabilities of success or failure, set limits on both. Losing all your chips is better than losing all your cash and it's always better to limit how much of your profits you are willing to give back, when the tide turns after being on a winning roll.
(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky

Knowledge is POWER.
Here I am in my quest to improve, learning as much as I can about the games of poker. From Mike Sexton, "the game that takes a minute to learn but a lifetime to master". One of the things I try to do is to learn something new every day.

Trying to live each game by the Golden Rule of Poker:  
Patience is a virtue!

Golden Rule:   
Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself:
What is this hand’s best possibility to win? Who is in this hand and what is their play style and chip stack size? Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for “Time”, randomly.

"I Never Bluff"