Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 3)

“Bluffing is a nice word for lying. The cards are going to even out in the end. In poker, the one who lies the best wins.” Chris Anderson

(Part 1) (Part 2)
Bluffing according to the flop

Most poker books say that players miss their hand on the flop. It's more likely that someone may have hit bottom pair or even more likely that a few people are on some kind of draw. Bluffing to epresent a hand is easier as the lack of betting or weak betting progresses toward the button. Also the texture of the board may give someone the opportunity to represent a hand that may have missed most players.

Flops without an Ace

There is an 87% chance that at least one person at a full table has an Ace and a 76% chance that two players at a full table have an Ace. Acutally there is an 87% chance that at least one person has any card you can name and 76% that two players have the same card. That being said, the lack of an Ace on the flop should mean that at least one person still in the hand has an Ace, as an overcard, because many players can not fold any Ace. As the betting moves around from early position players to late position players, a bluff can be represented that someone has paired the board and may have the Ace kicker. A single broadway card, King, Queen, Jack or Ten, can also be represented as many good players will already have mucked hands with high cards and low kickers. When the flop comes and it's 3 cards lower than a 10, if the opponent checks and you check, he is probably thinking you have an Ace, King, or Queen. If one comes, you should bet, even if you have low cards, if you think he will fold often enough for you to win.

Flops with an Ace

Knowing that there is an 87% chance that at least one person is holding an Ace and that there is a 76% chance that two people may have an Ace, as bets progress around the table toward the button, the lack of a bet gives more of an opportunity to represent the Ace that didn't hit someone's hand. Most good players aren't going to slow play even AK when the Ace hits, because there is that 76% chance someone else has an Ace and now may have 2 pair or an Ace high flush or straight draw. Everyone that has read any good poker book know the danger of allowing someone on a draw to get a free card, or even a cheap card, so there should be some betting going on, even a bluff.

Flops with a pair or better

There is only about a 2% chance that someone hit a set on the flop. Someone who did hit the set, may be slow playing the set, depending on how high it is and where they are in the betting sequence. Early position players are more likely to have hit a high set than a low set, so it's more likely they might slow play it. It's not likely that an early position player would represent a set by slow playing, more likely they could make an large bet to represent a bluff, if they have lots of chips. As the betting sequence moves around to the button, the lack of betting or weak bets could give someone the opportunity to represent the set.

There is less than a 1% chance that someone hit a straight or flush on the flop, this makes slow playing a made hand the optimal choice, unless someone has the low end. Here, a check raise, could be a good bluff against poor or weak players, or even good players if the bluff is made by a good player. Poor, weak, and tight players are not likely to make a check raise as a bluff.

A flop with trips on the board, meaning someone may have quads, will usually mean everyone, including the person with quads, is checking or making the minimum bet and only calling. It's more likely that the bets will occur on the turn and river if someone has and Ace or a full house. Probably the one hand that shouldn't have a bluff going, but if you have enough chips and the betting checks to the river, a bluff could be made.

Flops with 3 high cards

Since everyone plays the Broadway cards, it's likely someone hit something. The bluff can be made when someone makes a weak bet, suggesting a hand that can be beat. If there is no Ace on the board, an Ace can easily be represented to suggest the Nut Straight. This is one of the most dangerous bluffs to be made because the board is ripe for a Full House.

Flops with 3 of the same suit

It's about 500 to 1 that someone will hit the flush on the flop. Playing for the flush draw with anything but the Nuts is dangerous, but that's where the bluff comes in. 3 suited cards on the flop is so scary that most bets will usually be minimal, except by the Nut draws. That's where a raise or check raise could win the pot before the turn.

Bluffing against player types

If you are against an opponent who almost always calls, then you shouldn't bluff at all. If you are against an opponent who folds too much, you should bluff frequently.

Aggression Factors (from I Hate Bluffing)

11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)

12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),

21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)

22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).

3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

http://ljblue.blogspot.com/2009/08/i-hate-bluffing.html

Passive Players

Generally the easiest to bluff, but the one you have to give in to if they raise back and sometimes if they even call. Weak tight players are not likely to continue with the hand if they are challanged. Calling Station players have to be bet off the hand with a big bet, if they call, you are going to have to make another large bet in the hopes the Calling Station will fold. Tight players play a tighter range of cards, so bluffing is actually easier, but tight players are easier to bluff. Don't go overboard on bluffing, you still have to pick your spots. Pure bluffs can be profitable against tight player, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands agains tight players.

Aggressive Players

Aggressive players have to be met with aggression, but are harder to bluff. “In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!” The first to bet can sometimes take the pot, unless they are up against a loose aggressive or worse, a Mental Midget. Knowing who the loose aggressive players are and who the Mental Midget is gives the advantage to a Semi-bluff that catches a hand. Aggressive players tend to be poorer players, so a good player is rarely going to bluff an aggressive player. Tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. Against aggressive players, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.
(Part 1)
(Part 2)
"The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging", Sun-Tzu's The Art of War.

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 2)

Dan Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: "The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%", (until the final table).

(Part 1)
Bluffing Pre-flop

First of all, you should rarely bluff pre-flop, unless you are one of the blinds and only one other player has bet. The only other times to consider a bluff would be at the final table or heads up. Even AA should never be slow played pre-flop, especially since there is usually at least one loose aggressive player at a table and more than one selective aggressive player. It's when there are also one or more poor players that will hold on to top hands all the way to the river that someone with AA needs to make a reasonable bet or raise. Good players aren't going to gamble pre-flop against a full table, unless they are short stacked. AA only wins about 88% of the time heads up and against a full table it only wins about 36% of the time anyway. I love it when Mental Midgets go All-in, pre-flop, on the first hand. Even the Mental Midgets that win, because other Mental Midgets follow suit, tend not to last very long.

Bluffing by Table Type

Loose Tables

Loose tables tend to have many poor players so a good player is rarely going to bluff at a loose table. In loose games, tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. In a loose game, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.

Tight Tables

Tight tables tend to have more good players, so bluffing is actually easier, but good players are going to pick and choose the best time to bluff. Good players are not going to go overboard on bluffing, but there will be better bluffs going on. Pure bluffs can be profitable at a tight table, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand at a tight table. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands in tight games.

Bluffing by Position

Early Position

Early position hands are just too vunerable, even with good hands, to consider a semi-bluff, unless the table is weak and/or tight. That being said, the opportunity exists to represent a top hand against weak players and/or a tight table. Accepting that the range of hands for early position is mostly the top 5 to 6 hands, you might be able to consider a semi-bluff with some of the other top 10 to 15 hands.

Middle Position

In my opinion, middle position is the worst position at the table. Middle position players are usually sandwiched between the early position top 5 or 6 hand ranges and the late position's pure strength of their position. That does give a good oppertunity to exploit a weakness shown by an early position weak bet and represent a top hand against weak late position players. Against good late position players it may be a good place to occasionally try to steal the blinds.

Late Position

First of all, you have to Semi-bluff less often if you are the last to act and have to opportunity to get a free card, because it's still about the Semi-bluff. Secondly, someone could be sangbagging. It's all about how many are still in the hand and the strength of their bets. Against weak bets, it's a good place to make a play, but analize who is making the bet. Against weak timid players, it's a good place to test their metal. Against good players, it's representing a hand that can beat the board. With 3 or more players still in the hand, someone is sure to have a good hand, but how good. Late position is probably the best place to try Arnold Snyder's "Rochambeau" style or Blair Rodman and Lee Nelson's "Kill Phil" style. Although the button is the place where poor players try to steal the blinds, the cutoff seat just before it and the real stealing position just before the cutoff position, are where the good player try to steal the blinds and/or take down the pot.
(Bluff or Semi-Bluff pt 1)

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? Part 1

Re-reading "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky.

OK, I still hate to bluff, but found out that what I really hate is the 'pure' bluff. A pure bluff is a bet, which if called, has no chance of winning in a showdown. A semi-bluff is a bet with more cards to come. A semi-bluff, when called, may not be the best hand, but has a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand. The main thing to eliminate from your game is the gamble factor, don't be a Mental Midget. There is no semi-bluff you can make on the river, with no cards to come, it's a pure bluff. Pros look for the best opportunity to maximize the value of their hand. That's why a good player is easier to bluff against than a poor player. A good player can recognize when someone may be bluffing, but because a good player will usually only semi-bluff, they can more easily represent a good hand and make it believable. A poor player will just play to the river without realizing that their hand may not be the best, but can't let it go, where a good player can fold when a reasonable bluff has been made. We need to re-evaluate when to make the semi-bluff. Playing too tight by not bluffing at some time in the game only makes your strong hands worth less in pot equity. Don't semi-bluff if you are sure you are going to be called. Betting for value is clearly incorrect when you put more money in the pot with a hand you know to be the underdog. If you think your chances of getting away with the bluff are greater than the pot odds, you should go for it. You should bet if you know the opponent will fold with enough frequency, to make the bluff profitable. It's important that bluffs are random, don't always bluff just because of the pot odds. The weaker you think your opponents hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The stronger your opponent thinks your hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The larger the pot, the more likely a bluff will be called.

Randomizing bluffs allows a tight player to take the thought out of the bluff. It also allows both tight players and loose aggressive players to appear to be selective aggressive players. Opponents might be able to outguess a player because they remember patterns of play. Randomizing bluffs forces them to try to outguess an uncontrolled action, which is impossible. Sklansky suggests using a card, like the King of spades as the random trigger. The normal bluffs, combined with a random bluff, are more deceptive. Sklansky even goes farther by using 5 cards which includes all four Jacks. The game he played in this example was lo-ball, like Razz, in which those high cards are generally no good to win with. Using a card in Hold'em that generally doesn't help anyone, may be a good choice. The cards would be added to the number of outs to make the hand look better to an opponent. When the random card appears on the flop, you would bet, even if it didn't help your hand. If the hand fit the board, like for a straight or flush draw, it would appear that it helped your hand. Harrington suggests using a watch with a second hand. When the second hand is between 10 and 12, you could bluff. On a digital watch you could bluff when the last second is a 9 or when it matched one of the flopped cards, duece to nine. Again, only bluff good players who may fold to a bluff and it increases your odds of winning. Even if you lose, your odds are better on the hands that do win, because you are more likely to be called by the second best hand. The opponent can never tell when you are bluffing, because it's random.

In deciding to bluff, first determine the odds of making your hand. Then determine the odds your opponent is getting on the bet. Then you must randomly bluff in such a way that the odds against your bluffing are identical to your opponent's pot odds. If you have a 20% chance of making your hand and your opponent is getting 5 to 1 odds, the ratio of your good hands, 20%, to your bluffs, should be 5 to 1. 20/5 = 4. You should bluff 4% of the time, a ration of 20% to 4% would equal 5 to 1. If there are 10 outs, you would pick 2 unseen cards as the random bluff, to give you the 5 to 1 odds needed. It doesn't have to be exact, but the closer you are to the exact ratio the better. In game theory, when you bluff this way, you take optimum advantage of the situation.

Bluffing against 2 or more players

It's rarely correct to bluff 2 or more players when all the cards are out. The chances the bluff will succeed decrease geometrically with each player in the pot. In most bluffing situations against more than one players the probablilties that each player will fold are not independant. Position and player types have to be factored in because players who might fold in one position might not fold in another. Betting to reduce the field is not a bluff. When there is a caller ahead of you, the caller and the original bettor cannot both be bluffing. When you have a minimum to near-minimum raising hand and the player before you, who has the same standards as you, raises, then his hand is probably better than yours. It takes a better hand to call a raise than to raise a call.

I Never Bluff