NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 1)

Flop Texture
The FLOP is where most decisions are made. Depending on where you are in the betting sequence, the flop will determine how you play. Many pros talk about playing the player instead of the cards, so the seeds of doubt are planted here. You have to look at a flop according to whom it may have helped and what are the perfect cards needed to give the best hand possible. Hitting a straight-flush on the flop is 64,973 to 1, if you get one, better slow play it, and a royal flush is 10 times harder to get, but because of the high cards and high probability someone has something, you don't have to slow play it. Most players miss the flop and end up with some type of a drawing hand or are looking at two over-cards, so this is where players represent what hands they want you to believe they have. Some who actually hit something are more likely not to have the top pair or their top pair can be beat on the TURN or RIVER. Whether it's the FLOP, TURN, or RIVER, this is where the possible bluff starts and the more players in the hand, the less likely a bluff will hold to the river.

FOUR RULES FOR READING THE BOARD

1. Unless there is at least ONE PAIR on the board; it is impossible for any player to have Quads or a Full House.
2. Unless there are at least THREE SUITED cards on the board; it is impossible for any player to have a Flush.
3. Unless there are at least THREE cards on the board that have two or fewer gaps between them; it is impossible for any player to have a Straight.
4. If none of the above premium hands are possible, then the Nuts would always ba a pocket pair that makes a Set with the highest card on the board.

A couple of things about the 2 most loved cards, the Ace and King. It's about 220 to 1 that Kings will be beat by Aces. It's about 110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like AA or KK, so if you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about 2% to 4% for each pair from 22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table AA will win about 35% of the time and KK will win about 31%. At a full table there is about an 87% chance that at least one person has an Ace and about 70% that 2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about 5% for each person less than the full table. Most books you read show the odds of getting that 4 of a kind or Full House or Flush or anything that could win, but the real odds are in the cards players are likely to play and the cards that are flopped. There may be a 46 to 1 chance of making a set, but if everyone plays the high Broadway cards, which means those cards don't get mucked, and two of them appear on the flop, then the odds are higher that someone may have made it. Some players don't play low pairs and some don't play low kickers, so if a 4 or two fours come out on the flop, there is a slightly less chance of it helping most of the better players, it's more likely to help a poor or loose player. If a 9 came out on the flop, there is a higher percentage of players that could have paired it and more that will get the set if 99 come on the flop, then it's all about the kicker.

So lets look at Flop textures:

If the 3 cards are a SET, something that rarely happens: Could be someone has 4 of a kind, there's less than a 1% chance though. There's about a 1% chance of making a Full House, if someone has a pocket pair, then someone is more likely to have at least a Full House by the turn, possibly more than one person will hit the Full House by the River, if the betting was heavy. 4 of a kind with an Ace kicker will be slow played by everyone except weak players. Someone holding a King kicker probably won't slow play it, they will most likely make some kind of a raise or probe bet, looking for the player with the Ace kicker.

3 Suited Cards, again not the normal type of flop: It's about 500 to 1 that anyone hit a flush on the flop. Most likely if someone has a flush they will slow play it if there are no other danger cards. Many will have a flush draw and play it to the river. With suited connectors and a straight flush possible, some will chase both the straight and flush to the river.

3 Adjacent Cards, usually doesn't happen, more likely there's at least one gap: It's about 250 to 1 that someone hit a straight on the flop. If the 3 cards are consecutive, like 7-8-9 or J-Q-K, then the scare is out on the high end that at least a pair has hit because many players will play any 2 cards if one is a Jack or higher. Most players will play any 2 cards if both are an eight or above. So you have about half of the deck being played by all of the players. Out of the 52 cards in a deck, over half are an eight or above, 28 of the 52 cards. If 3 cards are delt on the flop that are close to a run with only one gap, there is a possibility of a made straight, but more likely a big draw to the straight, and that may last all the way to the river.

PAIRS, probably happens on the same frequency as someone getting pocket pairs. With the odds of someone being dealt a pair at about 16 to 1, it's not likely anyone hit quads on the flop. It's about a 10% chance someone with pocket pairs will make a set, so they are more likely to miss the set than make it. It's about a 16% chance that someone may get 2 pair by the river if they already have a pair. Phil Gordon has a neat formula to calculate the odds of someone holding higher pocket pairs, pre-flop. He calls it the "Gordon Pair Principle". If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard pre-flop decision.

Suited Connectors: Will it hit the Flush more likely than the Straight? This flies in the face of the odds. There are 13 cards in a suit and 2 suited cards hit the board, so there are 11 out. Since a flush beats a straight, more people are likely to chase the flush than the straight and since many players play connectors, it's more likely that the flush side will be hit.

• On the straight side there are 24 cards that can help, but the cards are specific, 3 from each side. They must have the two end cards for the straight, either one on each end or 2 on the same end. With 2 cards to come and only 8 cards that can really help, it's a bigger gamble to go for the straight.

• On the flush side there are 11 cards still to be played and any of the eleven will do. If they are holding the normal 2 suited cards, they have 9 outs that they are playing to with about a 36% chance of making the flush. Keep in mind that there is only a 25% chance of a flush before the deal.

Non-Suited Connectors: Likely to hit a Straight about 48% of the time at the river, if they already have 2 of the 24 cards needed, considering that there is only about a 38% chance of making a straight before the deal. That's 5 cards needed to make a straight and 4 ways to make it for about 20 cards that are needed, and if you have one then there are 16 cards that can help and if you have 2, then 12 that can help, which may really bring it to about 32%. We can leave it to the math guys like Skalansky and Block to give the real odds, but you will see lots of players take anything at 3 to 1 or better, as long as they still have half their chips left if they lose.

RAGS: At a full table, with 3 cards dealt above a seven, it's likely someone hit a pair and more likely that more than one person hit a pair. If the flop has an A, K, Q, or J and the other 2 cards are low and it's a rainbow, then most will bet their pair or represent that they got the pair. Everyone fears the Ace, most don't fear the King and less are likely to fear the Queen or Jack. 3 cards below an eight are most likely going to get many callers and the type of hand someone with a low set doesn't want to slow play.

I Never  Bluff

Players You Want At Your Table

http://www.askmen.com/poker/poker_tips/21_poker_tip.html
There are certain players who you always want at your table.
For different reasons, the players listed below make great tablemates, and the more you play with them, the more money you’ll have in your pocket in the long run. Here is a list of poker players that you should always have at your table.

Players with favorite starting hands
Why is their favorite hand usually something dreadful like K-J or Q-10? All we can do is be thankful and hope that we get them at our table. If they are at your table, you are going to be able to use this information for specific situations that arise. It is probably also an indicator of their general comprehension of the game. (My favorite starting hand is pocket aces… even though they will be busted a minority of the time).

Players with starting hands they hate
Ironically, these are usually strong hands like J-J, A-Q or even A-A. If you have these players at your table, watch for sudden over- or under-betting. It may indicate that they are holding one of the hands they hate. This “hate” is really just disguised fear of misplaying the hand, so they overcompensate to one extreme or the other.

Players who believe skill is better than luck
These type of players are very easy to put on tilt. Play some connectors and small pairs until you hit something on the board; then watch them spin out of control.

Players who are human calculators
Their strength of understanding the math down to the decimal point is also their weakness. Just make a bet large enough to destroy all of their pot odds and, unless they are holding aces or kings, you are golden.

These next players may be annoying, but you'll win with them at your table...

Players who think those who raise are bullies
These players believe that you should wait for proper cards to play at the appropriate time and they probably do very well in Limit Hold’em. You can usually tell who they are in a no-limit game because you have gotten most of their chips through numerous small pots.

Players who tell bad beat stories
These players are part of the group that feel skill should always overcome luck -- again, very easy to put on tilt. Give them another story to tell.

Players who are condescending
They are convinced that their poker ability is superior to all others, and they are outraged that you would call them with that hand, blah, blah, blah… The key to these players is that they are extremely insecure. They fear confident opponents and opponents who they cannot push around. I often think of the quote from the movie Gladiator when Russell Crowe’s character says to the emperor, “The time of honoring yourself is soon coming to an end.” you can bet on it

While playing with serious players who win all the time can really help improve your game, having a few flawed players at your table can also help you tremendously. Now go find some new tablemates and win yourself some cash.

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Harrington's inflecton points (Zones) are too conservative.

Harrington's Zones
Green Zone 20+ Big Blinds
Yellow Zone 10-20 Big Blinds
Orange Zone 10 Big Blinds
Red Zone 5 Big Blinds
Dead Zone 3 Big Blinds

Bluesbuster's Zones
Blue Zone 50+ Big Blinds
Green Zone 40-50 Big Blinds
Yellow Zone 30-40 Big Blinds
Orange Zone 20-30 Big Blinds
Red Zone 10-20 Big Blinds
Dead Zone 10 or less Big Blinds

Look at what it takes to make any meaningful bet and we aren't talking about rebuy phases in tournaments.
Poker players are more aggressive now, thanks to the internet and poker on TV. If you have a decent hand and even slow play the flop, you are likely to have to call one raise, which means you have at least 3 BB bets in the pot. If your hand holds up after the flop, and you want action, the pot now has 6 to 8, or more, BB bets in the pot. If you check, it's unlikely to be checked all around, you hope, so at least half the pot will be bet, which means another 5 to 6 bets, so now you are into the pot for 8 to 10 bets before the turn.
If your hand is still the top hand or you have a great draw and you want to stop others from betting, you are going to at least bet the pot, so that's another 10 bets, more if you get called by someone who hit something or is also on a draw to one of the nuts, then you have to look at their stack size relative to yours.
Are you already down to half your stack, or even 25% of your stack?
If they are the Loose Aggressive type and still have lots of chips, like 2 to 3 times what you have, they could push and catch their card on the flop, because at this time, most are playing anything if they have a 3:1 or better chance of winning. If they are Selective Aggressive, then they must have something or they wouldn't have gone this far and if they are Passive Aggressive or a Calling Station, you may really be the underdog and way behind.

Harrington's Red Zone @ 5x BB and Dead Zone at 3x BB are really both the same. You have to go All-In to bet and are likely to be called. You can't wait for the blinds because the BB is 1 bet the SB is really 1 bet, so you are easily down to 3x BB or only 1 bet left in either case.
If you have less then 10 times the BB, you are going to be all-in the next time you get a half way decent hand. So 10 times the BB is my Dead Zone. 10 to 20 times the BB is my Red Zone because all you have are enough chips for 2 decent hands and not enough for any marginal hands.
Harrington's Orange Zone @ 10 times the BB is critical, you're really on life support at this time. No one will take any bet seriously if you had a decent hand, You would have to bet at least 3x BB on the flop to limit the field, so you are down to possibly half your stack preflop. On the flop, if you made a hand, top pair or better and have to slow play it and are likely to have to bet 25% to 50% of the pot if anyone bets, so you are All-In now, because on the turn if you have to fold, you end up at the Dead Zone anyway.
20 to 30 times the BB is my Orange Zone because you can play a little or wait a little, but you only have 15 to 20 rounds left if you never bet, before being blinded out. In some tournaments, that's the starting point.
Harrington's Yellow Zone @ 10 to 20 times the Big Blind only gives you at the most 15 rounds to get a decent hand and any marginal hands played, and folded, leave you in the Dead Zone.

You need 30 to 40 times the BB to really have a chance to use any skill, so that would be my Yellow Zone. However, if 40 times the BB is on the low end of the stack size for the table you're at, your bets may not be able to put any pressure on the bigger stacks, especially if they are the Loose Aggressive types.
You must have some sort of aggressive posture to play poker and win. A Loose Aggressive player may need to have more than 40 times the BB to be effective. Almost any table you are at will have a fairly high percentage of weak or poor players and likely to have at least one Mental Midget, someone who will go all-in with 8-2 on a bluff ,when they aren't even close to being short stacked.

I have a Blue Zone. It's 50 or more times the Big Blind. This means you are likely to be one of the chip leaders and can kind of bully your way around the table if you want to. You can switch gears when you want to and be more Loose Aggressive when you want to. It's still 'All Things in Moderation' when switching gears.
One of my favorite ways to switch gears is randomly. Probably the most important thing I learned from reading Dan Harrington's books, using the clock or a watch with a second hand. If you normally raise in certain situations, look at your watch, or your neighbors watch, and when the second hand is at around 12 or less seconds to the hour, do the opposite or make more or less of a bet. That means 20% of the time you are doing something different than you normally do. You could use that switch to remain in the same playing style for a certain number of hands, just don't end up being predictable. There are many ways to introduce randomness into your game, be creative.

These Zones are dependent on how your stack compares to other stacks at the table and even the overall chip count for the tournament. You could be in the Yellow Zone and be the chip leader at the table or the short stack at the table. Either one is going to affect your playing style. These zones could change radically when there is an Ante involved.
I Never Bluff

Black Swans and random swings in luck

Black Swans are unknown unknown catastrophes or miracles, as opposed to known unknown coincidences or known known events, based on 4 things regarding knowledge, things you know that you know, things you know that you don't know, things that you don't know that you know, and things that you don't know that you don't know. I think more things are turning into things that I don't know that I know (forgot).

Trying to account for random occurrences in chance by looking for swings in the probability of success or disaster when you can't predict a Black Swan occurrence is really futile. The best you can hope for is to limit your disasters or losses and protect your successes or gains. You do this by setting limits and keeping within those limits or at least protecting part of your successes while hoping for a Black Swan miracle.

There are those who advocate continuing to play when you are on a losing streak, because you know you are playing correctly and those who advocate cutting your losses, because psychologically you're just playing head games with yourself. I think the smart thing is to at least take a break to regroup or reassess your play and the players in the game.

Whether it's playing poker (cash games) and looking for your hand to improve, your stack to grow or playing roulette and praying your number hits, if you're calculating the probabilities of success or failure, set limits on both. Losing all your chips is better than losing all your cash and it's always better to limit how much of your profits you are willing to give back, when the tide turns after being on a winning roll.
(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I Never Bluff

I Hate Bluffing

Bluffing ----- do you really need to bluff?
I hate bluffing and have always hated bluffing. I am currently reading Poker Wizards by Warwick Dunnett. The section with Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, one of my favorite players to watch, talks about the need to bluff.
Ferguson writes, "If I never bluff, my opponents are going to figure that out and only call me when they have a hand that they think can beat me. Therefore, I am really losing money with my good hands because I only get called when I am beaten. If I bluff too often, I will get called too often, and end up losing more money with my bluffs than I make from my good hands".

OK......So we'll look into Bluffing..........Maybe?

Reasons to Bluff are the same as the reasons to raise.
Reduce the number of players in the hand and/or Steal the Blinds. Generally good players will rarely bluff, unless the table is tight.

Player classifications prior to the first hand being dealt.
Rate each player as a 1 (Passive) or 2 (Aggressive).
After a few hands see if the classification still holds and then sub-classify them, which will give you an aggression factor.

Aggression Factors
11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)
12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),
21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)
22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).
3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

See if the maniac stays true to form or was really an aggressive type that got some great hands early in the game. There are many Mental Midgets in fast card room tournaments and on-line play, they have no respect for the game.

Clothing, mannerisms, boisterous talking, or no social interaction can give a clue as to the type of player. How they stack their chips, play with their chips, splashing, forcefulness in betting movements, or mucking their cards can also give a hint as the the type of player.

Bluff Poker
Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: “The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%”, (until the final table).
The probability of bluffing may be based on position, relative to the number of players at the table and the number of players in the pot. The "Button" and "Cutoff" players could have a 90% probability of bluffing, if there are no other players in the hand and decreasing 10% for each player before them in an unraised pot and another 10% if the pot has been raised. If it's been re-raised, the chance that someone is bluffing could be down to less than 10%.

Passive/Passive (11) players are not likely to bluff at any time. If they do bluff pre-flop, they are likely to muck the hand to any bet.
Maniacs or Mental Midgets (3) could bluff at any time. They are not likely to make it to the second round unless they get lucky. They will usually make a very large bet or go All-in from Early Positions and any position if no one else is in the hand before them.

Pre-flop bluffing probability
Early Positions
Aggression factor............12..21..22

.........................(UG) 10% 20% 30%
.........................(4th) 20% 30% 40%
.........................(5th) 30% 40% 50%

Middle Positions

Aggression factor..........12..21..22
......................(6th) 40% .50% 60%
......................(7th) 50% 60% 70%

Late Positions
Aggression factor...........12..21..22
..........(8th/Raising)....60% 70% 80%
.........(Button/Cutoff).. 70% 80% 90%
........(Blinds)............ 70% 80% 90%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Post-flop bluffing probability
The more players in the hand, the less likely anyone is bluffing, unless its the chip leader or a short stack or of course the Mental Midget.

Aggression factor....... 12.. 21.. 22
Early Positions.......... 10% 20% 30%
Middle Positions........ 20% 30% 40%
Late Positions........... 30% 40% 50%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Pre-flop bluffing:
Early Positions (UG) Under the Gun, 4th and 5th positions.
The UG & early position raising more than the standard 3 times the big blind is more likely to be a bluff. They would most likely slow play or make a normal raise with Top 10 hands. They are likely to just call or raise more than 3 times the big blind with Type 3 or 4 hands. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked. Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play the top 10 hands, but any other hand is open season for a large bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs and middle connectors or any suited Ace with a middle to low card.

Middle Positions (6th/7th)
Middle Position payers could be playing the top 15 hands normally but bluff lesser hands if no one is in the hand before them. Middle Position players are more likely to be squeezed between good hands if they are not first to bet. They are more likely to get trapped in a difficult situation, when you are trying to call a bet by a player in Early Position, but are getting raised or have a very real threat of being raised by another opponent in Late Position. This is dangerous because you may be wanting to slow down the action when you are holding a marginal hand or are wary of your opponent acting behind you in Late Position, but the Early Position player is either too aggressive or has a good hand himself and is forcing you to commit more chips to the hand. Middle Position may be the hardest place to try a bluff.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Button/Cutoff)
Late Position players are only limited by how many players got in the hand before them and if anyone raised. With no raises and everyone else mucking, they can easily bluff with just about anything, especially if the blinds are weak players. If there are a few callers they can raise with almost any of the top 20 hands. If the pot was raised with a standard raise, they are likely to bluff only if there are weak callers and the raiser is a loose aggressive player or a Mental Midget.
Blinds
It's amazing to me how irate aggressive players become if someone raised their blinds. The more irate they are, the more vocal they are, the more likely they are bluffing or pretending, because they have a strong hand, especially if there is only one or two players left in the hand.

Post-Flop bluffing
Scare cards are likely to induce bluffing if either no one has bet or the Loose Aggressive or Mental Midget thinks no one has caught anything and wants to represent a nut hand. The more players in the hand, the less likely someone who bluffs is going to succeed.

Early Positions (1st, 2nd and 3rd positions)
Early Position raising more than 2 times the pot is more likely to be a bluff. They would still more likely slow play or make a normal raise with a set or higher. They are likely to just call or raise half the pot with top pair or a nut draw. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked.
Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play a set or higher, but any other hand is open season for a larger bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs but representing top pair or nut draws with an Ace or King on the board.

Middle Positions (4th, 5th, 6th & 7th positions)
Middle Position payers are still vulnerable to being squeezed out but a bluff here could cause good drawing hands to fold. This may also be the best place for those Mental Midgets to attack if players before them are checking.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Cutoff/Button)
Most likely to make a play if there are few still in the hand and everyone checked to them. May be a good place to bluff if someone made a small bet and it looks like the rest will fold.
The goal is to put the pressure on, by getting heads up with a good hand against a weak player, the winning hand against a good but second best hand or challenge the Mental Midgets.

Final Table
This is where bluffing becomes a fine art. Now you are in the money and it's all about finishing as high as you can. The chance that someone is bluffing goes anywhere from 30% to 60%, increasing by another 10% according to the type of player you are against and your stack size relative to the average stack size. It's still going to be determined by the amount of the bet or raise in relation to the flop. If the bet or raise is un-reasonable, because the flop doesn't look like it helped anyone or the board is scary, then either someone is bluffing or they have a hand that can be beat at the river. It's rare that a bluffer will fire two bluffing bets (bullets), like a raise and re-raise or raising the flop and turn, with absolutely nothing. But, if it's going to happen, it will happen at the final table, at least once.
"I Never Bluff"

Harrington vs Snyder

Great controversy.
I've read both, used both, and would highly recommend reading all of Dan Harrington's books as well as all of Arnold Snyder's books.
Snyder may put down Harrington too much for my comfort, but Harrington has lifetime tournament winnings of $6,319,179 and Snyder has ???????? Can't find him on any list.

That said, Snyder's greatest value has to do with card room tournaments that are too fast for skill to be of any value and Harrington doesn't even go there. I think anyone who has read any of Harrington's and/or Snyder's books, can get great value out of both, and they should be re-read as you advance in your playing skill and learning more about poker.

The Super System 1 & 2, is still the place to start. Dan Harrington's Zone Poker is more of a conservative approach while Arnold Snyder's Rochambeau style with the Speed and Aggression Factors are more aggressive. I think both should be used at the same time, kind of like switching gears. I've even used the Kill Phil approach in some games. I like to blend all of these into the Art of War Poker, as a playing style.

I Never Bluff

Mr. Lucky’s Law on Slow Playing

If you can be beat at the river, you will be beat at the river, when it will lose you the most money.
AA, KK, QQ: You can slow play before the flop if you are the first to act and you have normally aggressive players after you, with AA, KK raise any bet they make at least 2x to 3x their bet, call with QQ; otherwise always play aggressive from start to finish.

I Never Bluff

Mr. Lucky's Law on All-In

You will go all-in with the worst hand twice and win, only to go all-in later with the best hand and lose.
Avoid going all-in early in the game or tournament unless you have the nuts or you are short stacked and this is the best hand you have seen and the blinds are coming around to you. Tournaments are more than just about survival, but if you want to survive, resist going all in, even at the final table.
Going All-In is not a bluffing option, unless you are the chip leader or head-to-head and have a playable hand.

I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky

Knowledge is POWER.
Here I am in my quest to improve, learning as much as I can about the games of poker. From Mike Sexton, "the game that takes a minute to learn but a lifetime to master". One of the things I try to do is to learn something new every day.

Trying to live each game by the Golden Rule of Poker:  
Patience is a virtue!

Golden Rule:   
Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself:
What is this hand’s best possibility to win? Who is in this hand and what is their play style and chip stack size? Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for “Time”, randomly.

"I Never Bluff"