Harrington's inflecton points (Zones) are too conservative.

Harrington's Zones
Green Zone 20+ Big Blinds
Yellow Zone 10-20 Big Blinds
Orange Zone 10 Big Blinds
Red Zone 5 Big Blinds
Dead Zone 3 Big Blinds

Bluesbuster's Zones
Blue Zone 50+ Big Blinds
Green Zone 40-50 Big Blinds
Yellow Zone 30-40 Big Blinds
Orange Zone 20-30 Big Blinds
Red Zone 10-20 Big Blinds
Dead Zone 10 or less Big Blinds

Look at what it takes to make any meaningful bet and we aren't talking about rebuy phases in tournaments.
Poker players are more aggressive now, thanks to the internet and poker on TV. If you have a decent hand and even slow play the flop, you are likely to have to call one raise, which means you have at least 3 BB bets in the pot. If your hand holds up after the flop, and you want action, the pot now has 6 to 8, or more, BB bets in the pot. If you check, it's unlikely to be checked all around, you hope, so at least half the pot will be bet, which means another 5 to 6 bets, so now you are into the pot for 8 to 10 bets before the turn.
If your hand is still the top hand or you have a great draw and you want to stop others from betting, you are going to at least bet the pot, so that's another 10 bets, more if you get called by someone who hit something or is also on a draw to one of the nuts, then you have to look at their stack size relative to yours.
Are you already down to half your stack, or even 25% of your stack?
If they are the Loose Aggressive type and still have lots of chips, like 2 to 3 times what you have, they could push and catch their card on the flop, because at this time, most are playing anything if they have a 3:1 or better chance of winning. If they are Selective Aggressive, then they must have something or they wouldn't have gone this far and if they are Passive Aggressive or a Calling Station, you may really be the underdog and way behind.

Harrington's Red Zone @ 5x BB and Dead Zone at 3x BB are really both the same. You have to go All-In to bet and are likely to be called. You can't wait for the blinds because the BB is 1 bet the SB is really 1 bet, so you are easily down to 3x BB or only 1 bet left in either case.
If you have less then 10 times the BB, you are going to be all-in the next time you get a half way decent hand. So 10 times the BB is my Dead Zone. 10 to 20 times the BB is my Red Zone because all you have are enough chips for 2 decent hands and not enough for any marginal hands.
Harrington's Orange Zone @ 10 times the BB is critical, you're really on life support at this time. No one will take any bet seriously if you had a decent hand, You would have to bet at least 3x BB on the flop to limit the field, so you are down to possibly half your stack preflop. On the flop, if you made a hand, top pair or better and have to slow play it and are likely to have to bet 25% to 50% of the pot if anyone bets, so you are All-In now, because on the turn if you have to fold, you end up at the Dead Zone anyway.
20 to 30 times the BB is my Orange Zone because you can play a little or wait a little, but you only have 15 to 20 rounds left if you never bet, before being blinded out. In some tournaments, that's the starting point.
Harrington's Yellow Zone @ 10 to 20 times the Big Blind only gives you at the most 15 rounds to get a decent hand and any marginal hands played, and folded, leave you in the Dead Zone.

You need 30 to 40 times the BB to really have a chance to use any skill, so that would be my Yellow Zone. However, if 40 times the BB is on the low end of the stack size for the table you're at, your bets may not be able to put any pressure on the bigger stacks, especially if they are the Loose Aggressive types.
You must have some sort of aggressive posture to play poker and win. A Loose Aggressive player may need to have more than 40 times the BB to be effective. Almost any table you are at will have a fairly high percentage of weak or poor players and likely to have at least one Mental Midget, someone who will go all-in with 8-2 on a bluff ,when they aren't even close to being short stacked.

I have a Blue Zone. It's 50 or more times the Big Blind. This means you are likely to be one of the chip leaders and can kind of bully your way around the table if you want to. You can switch gears when you want to and be more Loose Aggressive when you want to. It's still 'All Things in Moderation' when switching gears.
One of my favorite ways to switch gears is randomly. Probably the most important thing I learned from reading Dan Harrington's books, using the clock or a watch with a second hand. If you normally raise in certain situations, look at your watch, or your neighbors watch, and when the second hand is at around 12 or less seconds to the hour, do the opposite or make more or less of a bet. That means 20% of the time you are doing something different than you normally do. You could use that switch to remain in the same playing style for a certain number of hands, just don't end up being predictable. There are many ways to introduce randomness into your game, be creative.

These Zones are dependent on how your stack compares to other stacks at the table and even the overall chip count for the tournament. You could be in the Yellow Zone and be the chip leader at the table or the short stack at the table. Either one is going to affect your playing style. These zones could change radically when there is an Ante involved.
I Never Bluff

Black Swans and random swings in luck

Black Swans are unknown unknown catastrophes or miracles, as opposed to known unknown coincidences or known known events, based on 4 things regarding knowledge, things you know that you know, things you know that you don't know, things that you don't know that you know, and things that you don't know that you don't know. I think more things are turning into things that I don't know that I know (forgot).

Trying to account for random occurrences in chance by looking for swings in the probability of success or disaster when you can't predict a Black Swan occurrence is really futile. The best you can hope for is to limit your disasters or losses and protect your successes or gains. You do this by setting limits and keeping within those limits or at least protecting part of your successes while hoping for a Black Swan miracle.

There are those who advocate continuing to play when you are on a losing streak, because you know you are playing correctly and those who advocate cutting your losses, because psychologically you're just playing head games with yourself. I think the smart thing is to at least take a break to regroup or reassess your play and the players in the game.

Whether it's playing poker (cash games) and looking for your hand to improve, your stack to grow or playing roulette and praying your number hits, if you're calculating the probabilities of success or failure, set limits on both. Losing all your chips is better than losing all your cash and it's always better to limit how much of your profits you are willing to give back, when the tide turns after being on a winning roll.
(The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb)

I Never Bluff

I Hate Bluffing

Bluffing ----- do you really need to bluff?
I hate bluffing and have always hated bluffing. I am currently reading Poker Wizards by Warwick Dunnett. The section with Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, one of my favorite players to watch, talks about the need to bluff.
Ferguson writes, "If I never bluff, my opponents are going to figure that out and only call me when they have a hand that they think can beat me. Therefore, I am really losing money with my good hands because I only get called when I am beaten. If I bluff too often, I will get called too often, and end up losing more money with my bluffs than I make from my good hands".

OK......So we'll look into Bluffing..........Maybe?

Reasons to Bluff are the same as the reasons to raise.
Reduce the number of players in the hand and/or Steal the Blinds. Generally good players will rarely bluff, unless the table is tight.

Player classifications prior to the first hand being dealt.
Rate each player as a 1 (Passive) or 2 (Aggressive).
After a few hands see if the classification still holds and then sub-classify them, which will give you an aggression factor.

Aggression Factors
11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)
12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),
21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)
22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).
3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

See if the maniac stays true to form or was really an aggressive type that got some great hands early in the game. There are many Mental Midgets in fast card room tournaments and on-line play, they have no respect for the game.

Clothing, mannerisms, boisterous talking, or no social interaction can give a clue as to the type of player. How they stack their chips, play with their chips, splashing, forcefulness in betting movements, or mucking their cards can also give a hint as the the type of player.

Bluff Poker
Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: “The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%”, (until the final table).
The probability of bluffing may be based on position, relative to the number of players at the table and the number of players in the pot. The "Button" and "Cutoff" players could have a 90% probability of bluffing, if there are no other players in the hand and decreasing 10% for each player before them in an unraised pot and another 10% if the pot has been raised. If it's been re-raised, the chance that someone is bluffing could be down to less than 10%.

Passive/Passive (11) players are not likely to bluff at any time. If they do bluff pre-flop, they are likely to muck the hand to any bet.
Maniacs or Mental Midgets (3) could bluff at any time. They are not likely to make it to the second round unless they get lucky. They will usually make a very large bet or go All-in from Early Positions and any position if no one else is in the hand before them.

Pre-flop bluffing probability
Early Positions
Aggression factor............12..21..22

.........................(UG) 10% 20% 30%
.........................(4th) 20% 30% 40%
.........................(5th) 30% 40% 50%

Middle Positions

Aggression factor..........12..21..22
......................(6th) 40% .50% 60%
......................(7th) 50% 60% 70%

Late Positions
Aggression factor...........12..21..22
..........(8th/Raising)....60% 70% 80%
.........(Button/Cutoff).. 70% 80% 90%
........(Blinds)............ 70% 80% 90%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Post-flop bluffing probability
The more players in the hand, the less likely anyone is bluffing, unless its the chip leader or a short stack or of course the Mental Midget.

Aggression factor....... 12.. 21.. 22
Early Positions.......... 10% 20% 30%
Middle Positions........ 20% 30% 40%
Late Positions........... 30% 40% 50%
Reduce 10% for each caller and another 20% if someone raised.

Pre-flop bluffing:
Early Positions (UG) Under the Gun, 4th and 5th positions.
The UG & early position raising more than the standard 3 times the big blind is more likely to be a bluff. They would most likely slow play or make a normal raise with Top 10 hands. They are likely to just call or raise more than 3 times the big blind with Type 3 or 4 hands. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked. Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play the top 10 hands, but any other hand is open season for a large bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs and middle connectors or any suited Ace with a middle to low card.

Middle Positions (6th/7th)
Middle Position payers could be playing the top 15 hands normally but bluff lesser hands if no one is in the hand before them. Middle Position players are more likely to be squeezed between good hands if they are not first to bet. They are more likely to get trapped in a difficult situation, when you are trying to call a bet by a player in Early Position, but are getting raised or have a very real threat of being raised by another opponent in Late Position. This is dangerous because you may be wanting to slow down the action when you are holding a marginal hand or are wary of your opponent acting behind you in Late Position, but the Early Position player is either too aggressive or has a good hand himself and is forcing you to commit more chips to the hand. Middle Position may be the hardest place to try a bluff.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Button/Cutoff)
Late Position players are only limited by how many players got in the hand before them and if anyone raised. With no raises and everyone else mucking, they can easily bluff with just about anything, especially if the blinds are weak players. If there are a few callers they can raise with almost any of the top 20 hands. If the pot was raised with a standard raise, they are likely to bluff only if there are weak callers and the raiser is a loose aggressive player or a Mental Midget.
Blinds
It's amazing to me how irate aggressive players become if someone raised their blinds. The more irate they are, the more vocal they are, the more likely they are bluffing or pretending, because they have a strong hand, especially if there is only one or two players left in the hand.

Post-Flop bluffing
Scare cards are likely to induce bluffing if either no one has bet or the Loose Aggressive or Mental Midget thinks no one has caught anything and wants to represent a nut hand. The more players in the hand, the less likely someone who bluffs is going to succeed.

Early Positions (1st, 2nd and 3rd positions)
Early Position raising more than 2 times the pot is more likely to be a bluff. They would still more likely slow play or make a normal raise with a set or higher. They are likely to just call or raise half the pot with top pair or a nut draw. Going All-in is either a bluff or knowing they will end up All-in anyway if they are short stacked.
Even Mental Midgets are not likely to over play a set or higher, but any other hand is open season for a larger bet. The most likely hands for them to bluff are middle to low pairs but representing top pair or nut draws with an Ace or King on the board.

Middle Positions (4th, 5th, 6th & 7th positions)
Middle Position payers are still vulnerable to being squeezed out but a bluff here could cause good drawing hands to fold. This may also be the best place for those Mental Midgets to attack if players before them are checking.

Late Positions (8th-Raising/Cutoff/Button)
Most likely to make a play if there are few still in the hand and everyone checked to them. May be a good place to bluff if someone made a small bet and it looks like the rest will fold.
The goal is to put the pressure on, by getting heads up with a good hand against a weak player, the winning hand against a good but second best hand or challenge the Mental Midgets.

Final Table
This is where bluffing becomes a fine art. Now you are in the money and it's all about finishing as high as you can. The chance that someone is bluffing goes anywhere from 30% to 60%, increasing by another 10% according to the type of player you are against and your stack size relative to the average stack size. It's still going to be determined by the amount of the bet or raise in relation to the flop. If the bet or raise is un-reasonable, because the flop doesn't look like it helped anyone or the board is scary, then either someone is bluffing or they have a hand that can be beat at the river. It's rare that a bluffer will fire two bluffing bets (bullets), like a raise and re-raise or raising the flop and turn, with absolutely nothing. But, if it's going to happen, it will happen at the final table, at least once.
"I Never Bluff"

Harrington vs Snyder

Great controversy.
I've read both, used both, and would highly recommend reading all of Dan Harrington's books as well as all of Arnold Snyder's books.
Snyder may put down Harrington too much for my comfort, but Harrington has lifetime tournament winnings of $6,319,179 and Snyder has ???????? Can't find him on any list.

That said, Snyder's greatest value has to do with card room tournaments that are too fast for skill to be of any value and Harrington doesn't even go there. I think anyone who has read any of Harrington's and/or Snyder's books, can get great value out of both, and they should be re-read as you advance in your playing skill and learning more about poker.

The Super System 1 & 2, is still the place to start. Dan Harrington's Zone Poker is more of a conservative approach while Arnold Snyder's Rochambeau style with the Speed and Aggression Factors are more aggressive. I think both should be used at the same time, kind of like switching gears. I've even used the Kill Phil approach in some games. I like to blend all of these into the Art of War Poker, as a playing style.

I Never Bluff

Mr. Lucky’s Law on Slow Playing

If you can be beat at the river, you will be beat at the river, when it will lose you the most money.
AA, KK, QQ: You can slow play before the flop if you are the first to act and you have normally aggressive players after you, with AA, KK raise any bet they make at least 2x to 3x their bet, call with QQ; otherwise always play aggressive from start to finish.

I Never Bluff

Mr. Lucky's Law on All-In

You will go all-in with the worst hand twice and win, only to go all-in later with the best hand and lose.
Avoid going all-in early in the game or tournament unless you have the nuts or you are short stacked and this is the best hand you have seen and the blinds are coming around to you. Tournaments are more than just about survival, but if you want to survive, resist going all in, even at the final table.
Going All-In is not a bluffing option, unless you are the chip leader or head-to-head and have a playable hand.

I Never Bluff

Mr Lucky

Knowledge is POWER.
Here I am in my quest to improve, learning as much as I can about the games of poker. From Mike Sexton, "the game that takes a minute to learn but a lifetime to master". One of the things I try to do is to learn something new every day.

Trying to live each game by the Golden Rule of Poker:  
Patience is a virtue!

Golden Rule:   
Be Patient! Do not check, call, bet, raise or fold without asking yourself:
What is this hand’s best possibility to win? Who is in this hand and what is their play style and chip stack size? Always try to take the same amount of time to make a decision, call for “Time”, randomly.

"I Never Bluff"