The Power of Isolation

The objective of an isolation play is to make a wager big enough that it gets other players to fold, so you can be heads-up against one opponent. An isolation play can be used to isolate a tight player, bluffer, maniac, or a player on a draw. At loose tables, play tighter. At tight tables, play looser. Know who are the other players using the same tactic.

Whether it’s a tournament game or a ring game, Isolation is the key to building your stack. The object is to attempt to limit the field with your premium hands. Loose players use it to bluff or semi-bluff, some over use it. Playing the isolation game is dependent on the ratio of BIG BLINDS to your stack size. You can limit the field with almost anything other than AA or KK, but always make at least a small bet when in position with AA or KK. Slow playing AA or KK can lead to big losses. The optimal situation is to have at least 100 Big Blinds.

The first to bet has the power. Position can change with each street, until heads up.

An A or K or Q will hit the flop 50% of the time or hit by the river 50% of the time. If you don’t have one, someone does. You can almost estimate 10% for each player at the table, including yourself. With 8 players, it’s at least 80% that someone has an Ace, King, or Queen in their hand.

Pre-Flop:

STACK SIZES:

<100BB: You must play small ball and be cautious with most of your playable hands, don't gamble.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 10 hands. Try to Isolate one player, but don’t try to push around the chip leader unless you have the nuts.

AA KK QQ must be raised if you are in position, and don’t be afraid to go all-in, do not slow play. Later you can use this to put others all-in when you think you have the best of it or the flop is "B" or less. (see Flop Ratings)

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

AA KK QQ can be played for a for a hit and run pre-flop, with a check raise or small bet followed by a re-raise if you are raised, regardless of the number of players in the hand.

<50BB: You must play Tight Aggressive. Don’t gamble, but make the other players gamble. Take away their odds. Make it unprofitable to call your bet.

IN POSITION:

Play long ball (raises and re-raises) only with your top 5 hands.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play small ball when you are out of position.

>100bb: Be aggressive, but only in relation to the ratio of other stacks to your stack and position.

If you are the chip leader, you should only bet according to the ratio of stack sizes, not pot size.

IN POSITION:

Always keep the pressure on when you have a playable hand and you are in position.

Switch between small ball and long ball depending on who is in the hand and if you think you are ahead or not.

OUT OF POSITION:

Play according the the pot size until you think you have the best of it, then switch to playing for stacks.

Switch between making probe bets and value bets to disguise your hand. You should only be trying to disguise your hand if you are in the lead and intend to keep it.

Post Flop: About Position: You are either IN or OUT!

3^rd Street (the Flop):

Get in or get out. Let the gamblers gamble. If your hand is not good enough to make an isolation play, keep it small and fold to any raises where there are more than two players still in the hand. The more players in the hand, the more likely you will be beat at the river, if you don’t force them out.

4^th Street:

The Power of Position reverses at 4th Street (the Turn). You are usually heads-up or three handed at this point.

Power is relevant to the size of your stack (your “Q”) compared to everyone else.

5^th Street:

You have what you have. If you weren’t betting the best hand or able to control a weak player, you are toast.

I NEVER BLUFF

Poker outside the box.

Poker pros are action freaks. The don't just play poker, they are so easily bored during the game that they have to play games within games. Side bets,  Proposition bets, insurance, running it twice, etc.

Double-flop Hold'em
An alternative to the traditional formats is, as the name suggests, to have two flops (and turns and rivers), now they call it "running it twice". In this game the pot is split between the winner according to each board, although it’s probable that someone somewhere has tried to play double flop hi-lo! The game can also be played with variations of hole card numbers and discards, which make things a lot more interesting. Two flops introduces key decisions like the choice between making an all-out attempt to win on one board (and perhaps scoop an opponent attempting to do the same) or trying to have some shot at both, or choosing between a combination of made hands and draws when you come to discard.


How does Insurance work?
Let's work with other numbers first just so I can be sure I'm doing all the math correctly. Let's say you're a 75% favorite. You win 75% of the time and lose 25% of the time, so you are a 75:25 favorite, or 3:1.

Let's make the insurance fully fair right now, so the rate will be 3:1 as well. We'll play for $10.

If you win the pot, which you will do often, you pay the $10. If you lose the pot, which you will do less often, you get paid 3 times that amount, or $30.

The way you can remember is that you pay the insurance the opposite of the pot -- win the pot, lose the insurance, but lose the pot and you win the insurance. If you're a favorite, you will win more than you lose, so you should pay the smaller amount when you win the pot. When you lose the pot in the rare situations, you then get a consolation prize that's bigger than what you would have paid. In other words, more frequent event involves less money and the less frequent event involves more money.

For 70%, it's 70:30, which is the same as 7:3, or (7/3):1, which is 2.33:1. It's just division. If you are giving insurance and are not in the pot, remember things are reversed from above. If the guy wins the pot, you get some of it. If he loses, you have to pay him. So, when you make money, it's the '1' in the ratio. When you pay out, it's the '2.33' in the ratio. To make it in your favor, just reduce your pay out, like give 2:1 odds.

Hold'em hi-lo
As you might imagine, in the search for different variations, hold’em games have often been played hi-lo as well. Crazy pineapple and Tahoe in particular allow for greater degrees of flexibility in going both ways. In the latter game A-A-2 is obviously the dream combination, although A-2-3 also allows for flexibility against being counterfeited for low. Since it is much harder to scoop by winning in both directions in variations of hold’em hi-lo which have a qualifier of 8 or better (i.e. the low hand must be five differently-valued cards of 8 or below), it is important to watch how the board develops. The board can make the difference between a chance to win everything or realizing you’re only playing for half and then playing accordingly.

Cruise Poker

Not a poker cruise, but they did have poker on our cruise to Mexico; Mazatlan, Puerto Vallarta, and Cabo San Lucas.
We went on Holland America, the "Osterdam", from San Diego, which used an electronic poker table by Poker Tek. It was so enjoyable that we plan to take more cruises in the future. (First Real Cruise)

I played in the daily poker tournament: $60 entry, $50 to the prize pool, which paid 1st and 2nd place only, and $10 entry per person to the house. You get $2000 in starting chips and up to 10 players could sit comfortably. The blinds start at 25/50 and increase each 12 minutes with a 60 second timer and there was a $25 ante about the 4th level. It's a Fast Tournament, but can use some skill during first 20 minutes, after that it's more luck than skill. Players tend to be more of the "home" and some internet experience poker types than brick and mortar type. Not much tournament experience. It was a fun game, not too serious, I managed to win the first 3 tournaments, and entered 6 of the 7 tournaments. I rarely had to bluff, as the tables were more on the tight, small ball, side. Unlike the real game with real dealers, you could take a bet back, even an all-in bet, OK for these fun, easy going, social games, but poker pros would have some difficulty with it. I didn't play in any of the regular cash games, so I'm not sure how they played.

Many cruise ships are using this Poker Tek system. It was easy to use, could have used some sound effects for the poker chips and dealing cards for a more realistic effect, but that may be more of a programing decision by the cruise line or gaming room. Many people commented that they miss playing with the chips and using some tactics associated with reaching for chips and looking at the cards.

I can see a big future for electronic poker tables, but I don't see it taking over the main poker rooms in casinos. The sound effects would be a good marketing tool to help bring some players towards the main poker room, if place close by or on the fringes of the poker room with daily small stakes tournaments, shootouts, sit'n'go games, and satalites to bigger games. This would allow for more turnover of players instead of having players sit for hours playing $1/$2 games. It could also be a good game for teaching different poker games in small poker rooms and casinos, where you don't need to train dealers for Omaha, Stud, and Razz games.

(Motley Fool) certainly believe(s) there is a place for automated tables in the casino and card rooms. (2006)

Lightning Poker has decided to withdraw its federal charge against PokerTek following a statement by Pokertek's president. (2007)

Lightning Poker Files Patent Infringement Lawsuit Against PokerTek (2008)

PokerTek Says Lightning Poker's Patent Lawsuit is Without Merit. (2008)

PokerTek & Lightning Gaming settle lawsuit (10/27/2008)
PokerTek, Inc. and Lightning Gaming have settled the litigation over the automated poker games the two vendors produce. Lighting Gaming had filed lawsuit against PokerTek, alleging that PokerTek’s PokerPro automated poker table infringed against Lightning’s patents for its Lightning Poker game. The two vendors reportedly reached a mutually agreeable settlement. The terms of the settlement are confidential, but both parties have dropped all pending litigation. “We’re pleased to put these matters behind us,” commented PokerTek CEO Chris Halligan. “We’re focused on building a great business at PokerTek.”

PokerTek, Inc. and Lightning Gaming have settled the litigation over the automated poker games the two vendors produce. Lighting Gaming had filed lawsuit against PokerTek, alleging that PokerTek’s PokerPro automated poker table infringed against Lightning’s patents for its Lightning Poker game. The two vendors reportedly reached a mutually agreeable settlement. The terms of the settlement are confidential, but both parties have dropped all pending litigation. “We’re pleased to put these matters behind us,” commented PokerTek CEO Chris Halligan. “We’re focused on building a great business at PokerTek.”

POKER - The Liar's Game of 'Go Fish'.

Remember the good old days as a kid and playing Fish with your brothers, sisters, friends and family?

Poker is the same game, but with a twist.

In the game of Fish, you are looking at cards in your hand and asking someone if they have one. If they do, they have to give all of them to you and if they don't then everyone else playing knows what you have in your hand and can ask for it. In the kids’ version of Fish, you could not lie. You could not ask for cards you did not have and they had to tell the truth. If they had some they would give them to you or tell you to "Go Fish".

Poker, on the other hand, is all about lying. The big difference is that you are not asking what specific cards someone is holding. Poker is a game where players play different ranges of cards. Loose players may play a large range of cards and tight players may play a narrow range of cards, all depending on how much they like to gamble, or how much risk their money is worth.

When you make a bet, you are actually asking a question of your opponents. If you are the first one to bet pre-flop, you are really asking the players if they can beat the range of cards you are representing. That's why poker players are fond of saying, "you don't play the cards, you play the player". No one knows what any one else has. After a time they know pretty much which cards you like to play and how those cards may vary from position to position at the table.

If you are a tight player and everyone knows you are a tight player and you are the first to bet, you are basically telling them, "I have great cards so you had better have a monster hand to beat me". If you are a loose player and every one knows you are a loose player, you a basically saying "I have cards I think have the potential to beat your cards, so you had better have a monster hand to beat me." You tell them this by the size of your bet and how much you believe it is the best hand or can become the best hand.

The game gets interesting according the various types of players you are playing against. Loose players gamble more and tight players gamble less, but both players have to lie from time to time. Loose players lie more, based on the fact that they are involved in lots of hands. But on a percentage basis, a tight player can actually be lying more just by playing slightly more hands.

It's even more interesting when you factor in the probability of hands into the number of liars playing a hand. If the fact that, at a full table, someone will get pocket pairs once every 16 hands, then when a normal 3 times the big blind bet is made and 2 call and one raises, then more than one person is representing that they have pocket pairs, which means that there is at least a better than 50% chance someone is lying. Of course, poker players don't lie, they bluff! They can bluff meekly or they can be an extreme bluffer and bluff often.

After the flop is where the real art of the game comes into play. Each bet then is a series of questions about who has what and who believes what they are being told. If you believe the person who bet first had a good playable hand before the flop, is it still a winning hand after the flop?

Since the experts tell you that most hands miss the flop, then the question is which of those liars with pocket pairs will believe someone hit their hand and now their hand is beaten by a higher pair or a better made hand? And if they weren't lying, can you get them to believe you actually did hit your hand or that you really had a real pocket pair pre-flop and now you have a set or better?

The strength of the truth or lie will come in the strength of the question. And the strength of the question may be masked weakly, by a strong hand in order to get more money into the pot. The question can be asked strongly, by betting more than the other players are willing to risk and scoop up the pot now. Of the two most common types of post flop bets, which is the truth and which is the lie? Is the PROBE BET, usually less than half the pot, really saying, "I have some of the flop, maybe not the top pair, but second pair or the nut straight or a flush draw", the truth? Is the VALUE BET, usually half the pot or more saying, "I think I have the top pair or better", the truth?

That's what makes poker so great. You get to ask the players what they have and they will tell you. It doesn't make any difference if it's the stoic old player that never talks or the brash young player that not only talks but animates the antics of an answer to the world. They do this by folding or betting. They do this by not saying a word, or by saying loudly, many words. But after the silence or the noise, comes the answer in the form of a bet or non-bet.

It usually isn't until you reach the river that you learn who bluffed or who lied and who didn't.

I think I'll start telling people to "Go Fish", more often, then make my bet or non-bet. Which will start to mean, “I have a great hand so let’s go to the river - ALL-IN"!

I NEVER BLUFF

FLOP RANKINGS

Currently reading Every Hand Revealed by Gus Hanson.

If you have every watched poker on TV, you know they don't show every hand played. This makes it hard for new players to learn what hand to play and when to play them and how to play them. One of the chief reasons I think there are more aggressive players in the games than a few years ago. Gus Hanson takes you through most, not every, of the hands he was dealt when he won the Aussie Poker Millions tournament in 2007.

I'm about a third of the way thourgh and it looks like Gus is really only playing in hands he thinks he can get heads up in, unless he has a top hand. Most of the hands he plays are payed aggressively, from any position. The players appear to be less aggressive than you see on TV, which could be missleading, but may be due to not really knowing about the hands he is not in.

Still, it shows how aggression will win pots that would be lost if you didn't try to reduce the field and try to get heads up. Which leads to some thinking about reading the board again and what you are likely up against.

I like to rate the board, especially when I'm not in the hand, and see if I can figure out who has what. I rate flops from A+ to C, because even what some might consider a D type of nothing flop can lead to a monster on the end, but most players aren't going to go to the Turn or River without a hand that has the potential to win, unless you like to gamble or you're a Mental Midget.

FLOP RATINGS
A+
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
Royal Flush, (Ace + K-Q-J) +/- gapped
Straight Flush (any) +/- gapped
Trips (any)
High Pair (AA-TT) + 1 Broadway card (A-T)

A
(usually hits someone - can lead to Big Pots)
3 Broadway Cards (AKQJT) +/- 2 are Suited or Gapped
2 Broadway Cards + Suited card less than a Ten
High Pair (AA-KK) - NO other Broadway Card
Ace Suited + 1 Broadway card, not suited

B+
(likely to hit more than one player - can lead to Big Pots - but may be 50/50 race)
High Pair (QQ-JJ-TT) - NO other Broadway Card
Middle Pairs (99-88-77-66) + Ace
3 Suited cards
Ace Suited with a card lower than a Ten
Ace non-Suited + 1 Broadway card
2 Broadway cards + 1 card less than a Ten

B
(hits limpers the most)
Middle Pair (99-88-77-66)  + K-Q-J - NO Ace
Ace + Low Pair (22-55)
Pair lower than a Ten + K-Q-J
Ace - non-Suited + Middle Connectors (9876)
J or T + 98 +/- 2 are Suited
3 middle connectors - (9876) +/- gap

B-
1 Broadway + 2 cards lower than a Ten
Low Pair (22-55) with NO Ace

C+
Low Straight (2345) +/- suited or gapped

C
anything else

The Turn and the River can change anything, but the right play on the Flop may cut out the draws that can win on the last two streets.

I NEVER BLUFF

RANKING HANDS AND POINT SYSTEMS

Lets agree that an Ace is the highest card in the deck and is worth the highest points. There are probably as many point systems for poker as there are poker games and the various ways to play them. I think it's best to keep it simple, so I rank the Ace the highest, by about 2 points and the rest at about face value. My point system adds for pairs, connectors and suited cards, since an AA or AK should have a higher value than AT or A9 or A4.

An Ace therefore would be worth 12 points and a K,Q,J,T would all be worth 10.
Since Kings out rank Jacks and Tens, it should really have a higher rank than 10. and giving a higher rank also to Jacks, so we should probably give a one point advantage of Jacks over Tens, which makes a Jack worth 11, Queen worth 12 and King worth 13. Now the Ace should have that 2 point advantage, so I'll give it 15 points.

It's hard to put a value on a pair since 22 will win heads up about 55% of the time and only 12% against a full table and beats AK. Given that a deuce has about a 2 point rank and only 4 points counting both cards, based on face value, and AK would have a value of twenty-eight (15 for the Ace and 13 for the King), we should give a factor to pairs, suited cards and connectors. We'll start a Pair off at 20 points and add a point for card value. We will also add one point for being connected and 2 points for being suited and 3 points if it's connected and suited.

So the lowest pair (22) would equal 22 points and a pair of threes (33) would equal 23 points and a pair of nines (99) would equal 29 points and add one point higher for each broadway card; TT=30 (20+10), JJ=31 (20+11), and QQ=32 (20+12), KK=33 (20+13), and AA=35 (20+15)
22 vs AKs;
AKs = 31 points [(15+13) +1 for the connector, +2 for being suited] vs the 2 deuces @ 22 points.

If you loosly equate it to odds, then AKs would be favored 31/22 or about 1.4:1. (actually 1.409, but a tenth of a point is really no consideration in betting or looking at odds of any kind, not a factor at all, so round up) and KK vs AKs; KK would be favored 33/31 or 1.06:1.
KK vs 22, KK favored 33/22 or 1.5:1

What's all this mean?
Only that you shouldn't bet the farm. At best, heads up you are usually about 49/51, more likely about 60/40 and at worst only a 3:1 dog, using normal odds, and normal hands for All-In bets, and the point system would only show a slight advantage, since it all changes by the river, and you can throw any point system out the window.

Favorite-to-underdog matchup Probability Odds, discounting suitability

Pair vs. 2 undercards (AA vs KQ is only slightly better than 88 vs 34)
83% to 17% or 4.9 : 1

Pair vs. lower pair (AA vs KK about the same as 88 vs 33)
82% to 18% or 4.5 : 1

Pair vs. 1 overcard, 1 undercard (KK vs AQ not much better than 88 vs 97)
71% to 29% or 2.5 : 1

2 overcards vs. 2 undercards (AK vs QJ about the same as 98 vs 76)
63% to 37% or 1.7 : 1

Pair vs. 2 overcards (QQ vs AK and 88 vs 9T)
55% to 45% or 1.2 : 1

Max points are 35 for the AA and minimum is 6 for the 23, 5 at face value, plus 1 for being connected. In a normal counting system, many people will play any hand with 2 cards totaling 18 or higher, which would be an 8 and 10, or any pair. Aggressive players like Daniel Negreanu, will add some connectors and suited cards to their range. Some say any cards that can be connected on the flop, like one or 2 gaps, or even 3 gaps, are connectors. and look for luck to help them with a miracle flop.

This point system adds up to 3 points which lets you reasonably increase your range of cards by giving an 89 a 18 point count becuse it's connected, or 19 points if suited, and 20 points if it's both.

In a normal count a KK would count the same as a TT, where this system gives a better value for KK at 33 points and significally better than the 89 which is only 3 points lower the the normal KK of 20 points.
Now a hand of JJ at 31 points against the 18 to 20 points players normally use would be 31/18 or 1.72:1.

You can use to help decide how much to bet or raise against a normal hand if you end up heads up and in position against the range of hands people play, depending on their position. It makes your hand look stronger, because it is.

Can you use it as a betting tool on the flop?
Look at it compared to the flop rating system: A+, A, B+, etc.
How about betting about 1.72 more than the normal bet? If the normal bet is 3 times the big blind, you could make it a little more than 4.5 times the big blind (3+1.72) if you have a 31 point hand vs a normal 20 piont hand. Pro's seem to like to make normal bets look different, like a $325 bet when $300 is 3 times the big blind or $16,200 when a $15,000 bet is the normal bet.

I NEVER BLUFF

Playing Pairs

A couple of things about the 2 most loved cards, the Ace and King. It's about 110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like AA or KK. It's about 220 to 1 that Kings will be beaten by Aces. If you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about 2% to 4% for each pair from 22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table, AA will win about 35% of the time and KK will win about 31%. 22 wins about 12% at a full table and about 55% heads up. That being said, you should get a pocket pair once every 16 hands and putting into perspective, someone should be dealt pocket pairs once every 16 hands, or one and a half rounds at a full table.

At a full table there is about an 87% chance that at least one person has an Ace and about 70% that 2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about 5% for each person less than the full table. It's also about 87% that someone will have a King, or any other card you can name. AK vs AA, AK will win about 7%, at a full table and about 5% heads up. AA vs KK, AA wins about 81% heads up and about 29% at a full table. A 1% or 2% variance is a non-issue because the pot odds will be too high to consider such a small percentage.

"Gordon Pair Principle" from Phil Gordon.

If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard pre-flop decision.

AA (0%)
At a full table AA will win about 35% and about 88% heads up, so you need to get heads up or at least reduce the field to increase your odds of winning. Even against a Mental Midget that will go All-in pre-flop, it's a hand you don't throw away. Heads up is about the only place to slow play. You might try it if you're on the button and everyone has folded around to you. You have to re-raise on the flop, regardless of who bets.

KK (0.5% to 4.5% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
KK vs AA, KK will win about 18% at a full table and about 19% heads up. AA wins about 23% at a full table and about 81% heads up.

KK vs XX , KK wins about 30% at a full table and about 85% heads up.
You can almost play KK the same way you play AA, except there is an 87% chance at least one person has an Ace at a full table and about a 70% chance that more than one person has an Ace. Anyone with an Ace may call a normal bet and anyone with an Ace with another Broadway card is also likely to call a normal bet, or even raise. Anyone with an under pair like QQ or JJ may raise any bet. You need to reduce the field in early position and protect the KK against anyone calling with hands like an Ace with a good kicker.

QQ (1% to 9% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
QQ vs AA or KK
QQ vs AA, QQ wins about 15% at a full table and AA wins about 27%. AA wins about 81% heads up against QQ.

QQ vs KK, QQ wins about 18% at a full table and KK wins about 24%. KK wins about 81% heads up aganist QQ.

QQ vs XX, QQ wins about 26% at a full table and about 82% heads up.

JJ (1/5% to 13.5% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
JJ vs AA or KK or QQ
JJ vs AA, JJ wins about 17% at a full table and AA wins about 27% at a full table. AA wins about 81% heads up against JJ.

JJ vs KK, JJ wiins about 16% at a full table and KK wins 27% about at a full table. KK wins about 81% heads up against JJ

JJ vs QQ, JJ wins about at 17% at a full table and QQ wins about 23% at a full table. QQ wins about 81% heads up against JJ.

JJ vs XX, JJ wins about 25 % at a full table and about 79% heads up.

TT (2% to 18% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
Everyone plays the Broadway cards, AKQJT. With four cards to beat you, and 5 cards to come, TT should only be played in late positions or from the blinds. Each position behind you that stays in the hand means someone has higher cards or a possible pocket pair. Each player to play in front of you could have higher cards and a higher pocket pair. Never call with TT. You have to bet. How much will depend on what bets were placed before you and how many players are left behind you.

TT vs XX, TT wins about 20% at a full table and about 77% heads up.

99 to 22 (2.5% to 54% that someone has a higher pocket pair)
Need to play them more like a drawing hand. If you don't get trips on the flop, consider folding to any normal raise. Call normal bets, but fold to bets that are more than 2x the BB.
A raise that gets re-raised usually means someone at least has QQ and you should fold. It would be good to calculate the odds someone has a higher pair by using the Gordon Pair Principle.
 
I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 3)

“Bluffing is a nice word for lying. The cards are going to even out in the end. In poker, the one who lies the best wins.” Chris Anderson

(Part 1) (Part 2)
Bluffing according to the flop

Most poker books say that players miss their hand on the flop. It's more likely that someone may have hit bottom pair or even more likely that a few people are on some kind of draw. Bluffing to epresent a hand is easier as the lack of betting or weak betting progresses toward the button. Also the texture of the board may give someone the opportunity to represent a hand that may have missed most players.

Flops without an Ace

There is an 87% chance that at least one person at a full table has an Ace and a 76% chance that two players at a full table have an Ace. Acutally there is an 87% chance that at least one person has any card you can name and 76% that two players have the same card. That being said, the lack of an Ace on the flop should mean that at least one person still in the hand has an Ace, as an overcard, because many players can not fold any Ace. As the betting moves around from early position players to late position players, a bluff can be represented that someone has paired the board and may have the Ace kicker. A single broadway card, King, Queen, Jack or Ten, can also be represented as many good players will already have mucked hands with high cards and low kickers. When the flop comes and it's 3 cards lower than a 10, if the opponent checks and you check, he is probably thinking you have an Ace, King, or Queen. If one comes, you should bet, even if you have low cards, if you think he will fold often enough for you to win.

Flops with an Ace

Knowing that there is an 87% chance that at least one person is holding an Ace and that there is a 76% chance that two people may have an Ace, as bets progress around the table toward the button, the lack of a bet gives more of an opportunity to represent the Ace that didn't hit someone's hand. Most good players aren't going to slow play even AK when the Ace hits, because there is that 76% chance someone else has an Ace and now may have 2 pair or an Ace high flush or straight draw. Everyone that has read any good poker book know the danger of allowing someone on a draw to get a free card, or even a cheap card, so there should be some betting going on, even a bluff.

Flops with a pair or better

There is only about a 2% chance that someone hit a set on the flop. Someone who did hit the set, may be slow playing the set, depending on how high it is and where they are in the betting sequence. Early position players are more likely to have hit a high set than a low set, so it's more likely they might slow play it. It's not likely that an early position player would represent a set by slow playing, more likely they could make an large bet to represent a bluff, if they have lots of chips. As the betting sequence moves around to the button, the lack of betting or weak bets could give someone the opportunity to represent the set.

There is less than a 1% chance that someone hit a straight or flush on the flop, this makes slow playing a made hand the optimal choice, unless someone has the low end. Here, a check raise, could be a good bluff against poor or weak players, or even good players if the bluff is made by a good player. Poor, weak, and tight players are not likely to make a check raise as a bluff.

A flop with trips on the board, meaning someone may have quads, will usually mean everyone, including the person with quads, is checking or making the minimum bet and only calling. It's more likely that the bets will occur on the turn and river if someone has and Ace or a full house. Probably the one hand that shouldn't have a bluff going, but if you have enough chips and the betting checks to the river, a bluff could be made.

Flops with 3 high cards

Since everyone plays the Broadway cards, it's likely someone hit something. The bluff can be made when someone makes a weak bet, suggesting a hand that can be beat. If there is no Ace on the board, an Ace can easily be represented to suggest the Nut Straight. This is one of the most dangerous bluffs to be made because the board is ripe for a Full House.

Flops with 3 of the same suit

It's about 500 to 1 that someone will hit the flush on the flop. Playing for the flush draw with anything but the Nuts is dangerous, but that's where the bluff comes in. 3 suited cards on the flop is so scary that most bets will usually be minimal, except by the Nut draws. That's where a raise or check raise could win the pot before the turn.

Bluffing against player types

If you are against an opponent who almost always calls, then you shouldn't bluff at all. If you are against an opponent who folds too much, you should bluff frequently.

Aggression Factors (from I Hate Bluffing)

11 = Passive/Passive (CA = Calling Station)

12 = Passive/Aggressive (TA = Tight Aggressive),

21 = Aggressive/Passive (SA = Selective Aggressive)

22 = Aggressive/Aggressive (LA = Loose Aggressive).

3 = Maniac or Mental Midget (MM) How many maniacs are too many at a table?

http://ljblue.blogspot.com/2009/08/i-hate-bluffing.html

Passive Players

Generally the easiest to bluff, but the one you have to give in to if they raise back and sometimes if they even call. Weak tight players are not likely to continue with the hand if they are challanged. Calling Station players have to be bet off the hand with a big bet, if they call, you are going to have to make another large bet in the hopes the Calling Station will fold. Tight players play a tighter range of cards, so bluffing is actually easier, but tight players are easier to bluff. Don't go overboard on bluffing, you still have to pick your spots. Pure bluffs can be profitable against tight player, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands agains tight players.

Aggressive Players

Aggressive players have to be met with aggression, but are harder to bluff. “In a balance of mutual terror, whoever acts first has the advantage!” The first to bet can sometimes take the pot, unless they are up against a loose aggressive or worse, a Mental Midget. Knowing who the loose aggressive players are and who the Mental Midget is gives the advantage to a Semi-bluff that catches a hand. Aggressive players tend to be poorer players, so a good player is rarely going to bluff an aggressive player. Tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. Against aggressive players, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.
(Part 1)
(Part 2)
"The risk of never challenging is always greater than the risk of challenging", Sun-Tzu's The Art of War.

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? (pt 2)

Dan Harrington’s Law on Bluffing: "The probability someone is bluffing when he shoves a big bet into the pot is at least 10%", (until the final table).

(Part 1)
Bluffing Pre-flop

First of all, you should rarely bluff pre-flop, unless you are one of the blinds and only one other player has bet. The only other times to consider a bluff would be at the final table or heads up. Even AA should never be slow played pre-flop, especially since there is usually at least one loose aggressive player at a table and more than one selective aggressive player. It's when there are also one or more poor players that will hold on to top hands all the way to the river that someone with AA needs to make a reasonable bet or raise. Good players aren't going to gamble pre-flop against a full table, unless they are short stacked. AA only wins about 88% of the time heads up and against a full table it only wins about 36% of the time anyway. I love it when Mental Midgets go All-in, pre-flop, on the first hand. Even the Mental Midgets that win, because other Mental Midgets follow suit, tend not to last very long.

Bluffing by Table Type

Loose Tables

Loose tables tend to have many poor players so a good player is rarely going to bluff at a loose table. In loose games, tighten up on semi-bluffs and losen up on legitimate hands. In a loose game, play more drawing hands and do not play loose with marginal hands.

Tight Tables

Tight tables tend to have more good players, so bluffing is actually easier, but good players are going to pick and choose the best time to bluff. Good players are not going to go overboard on bluffing, but there will be better bluffs going on. Pure bluffs can be profitable at a tight table, but have to be abandoned if called or raised. You will usually only be called by players that have a top hand at a tight table. Aggressive players will be able to steal the blinds, but lose more when they have a good, but not great, hand. Don't play as many drawing hands in tight games.

Bluffing by Position

Early Position

Early position hands are just too vunerable, even with good hands, to consider a semi-bluff, unless the table is weak and/or tight. That being said, the opportunity exists to represent a top hand against weak players and/or a tight table. Accepting that the range of hands for early position is mostly the top 5 to 6 hands, you might be able to consider a semi-bluff with some of the other top 10 to 15 hands.

Middle Position

In my opinion, middle position is the worst position at the table. Middle position players are usually sandwiched between the early position top 5 or 6 hand ranges and the late position's pure strength of their position. That does give a good oppertunity to exploit a weakness shown by an early position weak bet and represent a top hand against weak late position players. Against good late position players it may be a good place to occasionally try to steal the blinds.

Late Position

First of all, you have to Semi-bluff less often if you are the last to act and have to opportunity to get a free card, because it's still about the Semi-bluff. Secondly, someone could be sangbagging. It's all about how many are still in the hand and the strength of their bets. Against weak bets, it's a good place to make a play, but analize who is making the bet. Against weak timid players, it's a good place to test their metal. Against good players, it's representing a hand that can beat the board. With 3 or more players still in the hand, someone is sure to have a good hand, but how good. Late position is probably the best place to try Arnold Snyder's "Rochambeau" style or Blair Rodman and Lee Nelson's "Kill Phil" style. Although the button is the place where poor players try to steal the blinds, the cutoff seat just before it and the real stealing position just before the cutoff position, are where the good player try to steal the blinds and/or take down the pot.
(Bluff or Semi-Bluff pt 1)

I Never Bluff

Bluff or Semi-Bluff in No Limit Holdem? Part 1

Re-reading "The Theory of Poker" by David Sklansky.

OK, I still hate to bluff, but found out that what I really hate is the 'pure' bluff. A pure bluff is a bet, which if called, has no chance of winning in a showdown. A semi-bluff is a bet with more cards to come. A semi-bluff, when called, may not be the best hand, but has a reasonable chance of becoming the best hand. The main thing to eliminate from your game is the gamble factor, don't be a Mental Midget. There is no semi-bluff you can make on the river, with no cards to come, it's a pure bluff. Pros look for the best opportunity to maximize the value of their hand. That's why a good player is easier to bluff against than a poor player. A good player can recognize when someone may be bluffing, but because a good player will usually only semi-bluff, they can more easily represent a good hand and make it believable. A poor player will just play to the river without realizing that their hand may not be the best, but can't let it go, where a good player can fold when a reasonable bluff has been made. We need to re-evaluate when to make the semi-bluff. Playing too tight by not bluffing at some time in the game only makes your strong hands worth less in pot equity. Don't semi-bluff if you are sure you are going to be called. Betting for value is clearly incorrect when you put more money in the pot with a hand you know to be the underdog. If you think your chances of getting away with the bluff are greater than the pot odds, you should go for it. You should bet if you know the opponent will fold with enough frequency, to make the bluff profitable. It's important that bluffs are random, don't always bluff just because of the pot odds. The weaker you think your opponents hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The stronger your opponent thinks your hand is, the more likely your bluff will work. The larger the pot, the more likely a bluff will be called.

Randomizing bluffs allows a tight player to take the thought out of the bluff. It also allows both tight players and loose aggressive players to appear to be selective aggressive players. Opponents might be able to outguess a player because they remember patterns of play. Randomizing bluffs forces them to try to outguess an uncontrolled action, which is impossible. Sklansky suggests using a card, like the King of spades as the random trigger. The normal bluffs, combined with a random bluff, are more deceptive. Sklansky even goes farther by using 5 cards which includes all four Jacks. The game he played in this example was lo-ball, like Razz, in which those high cards are generally no good to win with. Using a card in Hold'em that generally doesn't help anyone, may be a good choice. The cards would be added to the number of outs to make the hand look better to an opponent. When the random card appears on the flop, you would bet, even if it didn't help your hand. If the hand fit the board, like for a straight or flush draw, it would appear that it helped your hand. Harrington suggests using a watch with a second hand. When the second hand is between 10 and 12, you could bluff. On a digital watch you could bluff when the last second is a 9 or when it matched one of the flopped cards, duece to nine. Again, only bluff good players who may fold to a bluff and it increases your odds of winning. Even if you lose, your odds are better on the hands that do win, because you are more likely to be called by the second best hand. The opponent can never tell when you are bluffing, because it's random.

In deciding to bluff, first determine the odds of making your hand. Then determine the odds your opponent is getting on the bet. Then you must randomly bluff in such a way that the odds against your bluffing are identical to your opponent's pot odds. If you have a 20% chance of making your hand and your opponent is getting 5 to 1 odds, the ratio of your good hands, 20%, to your bluffs, should be 5 to 1. 20/5 = 4. You should bluff 4% of the time, a ration of 20% to 4% would equal 5 to 1. If there are 10 outs, you would pick 2 unseen cards as the random bluff, to give you the 5 to 1 odds needed. It doesn't have to be exact, but the closer you are to the exact ratio the better. In game theory, when you bluff this way, you take optimum advantage of the situation.

Bluffing against 2 or more players

It's rarely correct to bluff 2 or more players when all the cards are out. The chances the bluff will succeed decrease geometrically with each player in the pot. In most bluffing situations against more than one players the probablilties that each player will fold are not independant. Position and player types have to be factored in because players who might fold in one position might not fold in another. Betting to reduce the field is not a bluff. When there is a caller ahead of you, the caller and the original bettor cannot both be bluffing. When you have a minimum to near-minimum raising hand and the player before you, who has the same standards as you, raises, then his hand is probably better than yours. It takes a better hand to call a raise than to raise a call.

I Never Bluff

Poker's Mental Midgets and the art of Russian roulette

Let’s play a game of Russian roulette.
You are tied to your chair and can’t get up. Here’s a gun. Here’s the barrel of the gun, six chambers, all empty. Now watch me as I put a single bullet in the gun. I close the barrel and spin it. I put a gun to your head and pull the trigger. "Click". Lucky you!


Now I’m going to pull the trigger one more time. Which would you prefer, that I spin the chamber first, or that I just pull the trigger? (This is actually one of the game theory settings in learning game theory,but, using one or two bullets)

Ok, do the math, then watch 'The Deer Hunter' movie for an interesting take on the mentality of Russian roulette players.

Mental Midgets play poker as if they are playing Russian roulette, willing to fire or go all-in pre-flop, hoping that:

• A. Everyone will fold and the Mental Midget gets to steal the blinds, which happens frequently.
• B. They will have to go up against only one person and the Mental Midget is at worst a 4 to 1 dog, which is not usually the case because there tends to be more than 2 Mental Midgets in the same game.

If the Mental Midget does this with one of the top 10 hands, which is also not usually the case, they are likely to be at best a 60/40 favorite, as most challengers will also have a good hand, probably at least a top 20 hand.

The problem with this strategy is that it works every time but once and the problem with Mental Midgets is that they don't know when to stop and they end up shooting themselves eventually. Worse is that since there tends to be more than one Mental Midget at the same table, the luck factor is elevated beyond 50% and you now have at least 2 dogs fighting it out. I like to call it the 'Michael Vic' factor. I really like it when there are several Mental Midgets fighting it out and 3 or 4 of them are eliminated on the first hand, since I like to play multi-table sit-n-go games.

Not to be confused with the 'Kill Phil' strategy put forth by Rodman/Nelson or 'Kill Everyone' strategy by Nelson/Streib/Lee, Mental Midgets do not have any viable plan to win the tournament anymore than those who enter a tournament only to 'sit out' for the entire trounament hoping to get 'in the money' in the end.

Poker pros rarely go All-in before the final table and even more rare is an All-in bet - pre-flop. It's usually because they think they have the best of it or they are at a point where their stack will be too low to make the correct bets if they are going to see their hand all the way to the river. Except for the final table, good players don't really gamble on poker and they don't use the All-in bet as a bluff, unless they can afford to lose and they will still have a decent amount of chips to get back in the game.

Oh, about Russian roulette.
Does spinning the chamber cause the chamber with the bullet to fall to the bottom due to gravity?
I read a comment that if the gun is well maintained, the extra weight of the bullet will tend to make the chamber stop with the bullet at the bottom.
In that scenario, no one would ever die. However, revolvers 'click' as they are spun because there is a ratcheting mechanism which causes drag on the spin and allows the bullet to stop - anywhere. Then the 'cocking and/or firing, ratchets the chamber for the firing pin, which will move the chamber either into or out of the correct position to properly strike the bullet casing.
I Never Bluff

NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 2)

So let's talk about some standard types of FLOPS.
Everyone knows that the flop defines your hand. The thing you should be asking yourself is, who would be playing to this flop? And you can kind of figure out most of the possible hands according to position card ranges and betting patterns.

The best hand likely to hit on any flop that doesn't include a pair is trips and most players that hit trips are going to slow play to trap other players with good drawing hands or even 2 pair. Pocket pairs only happen once out of 16 hands, so two players having pocket pairs is unlikely. Someone will flop a pair about 42% of the time, but considering that the minor cards (2-7) are usually mucked, we're probably down to less than a 30% chance that someone paired the board, and flopping 2 pair happens less than 5% of the time. It may be best to vary how you slow play by checking out of position or if in position, calling any bet or making a small bet. Heads-up on the FLOP is the most likely place for the bluff to start, but more likely where the betting tells come into play.

Ace with Rags

FLOPS like Ah 3d 9s - It's the position players that will drive the pot. If you don't have the Ace, someone likely does. The best hand is pocket pairs for the sets of AAA, 333, 999, and the 33 may have been mucked anyway depending on position. How many players that are in the hand, after the pre-flop betting, are going to hit anything?
Early position players that bet, probably have the Ace because they aren't likely to be playing anything with a 3 or 9 unless it's a pocket pair. They could have a suited Kh like KQ or KJ, and may have mucked K10 and QJ if there was a lot of action pre-flop. They may be betting on the nut draw, but they most likely aren't going to bet more than the pot and might check raise a set.
Middle position players that are the first to bet may have the same type of hand as the early position players, but might also try to represent the Ace with a probe bet. If they have to call a raise, they are more likely to call with a set or 2 pair or raise with an A10 or higher kicker. Passive players are only going to bet if they have paired their Ace or hit 2 pair or a set, they aren't likely to slow play it.
Late position players that are the first to bet are most likely going to bet 2 times the Big Blind, or more, with anything. Checking is just too weak, but it might be a good play if they know that the blinds or button are loose players that will bet if no one has or call any normal bet with only one player before them. Late position players could call any raise if they have pocket pairs higher than the 9, or raise with an Ace with a kicker higher than the nine. Might call any raise with 2 pair or better. A raise should get everyone to fold except another Ace with a high kicker or 2 pair or an set. Passive players are only going to play the nuts, but may not raise if they think they can be beat.

Two high cards with no ace

FLOPS like Kc Qd 7C - The kind of hand that may see lots of action. The best hand has pocket pairs for trip KKK, QQQ, or 777.
It's the kind of hand that can get someone in a lot of trouble. Second pair, QQ, is very vulnerable. Anyone who calls must have the King or AA or 2 pair or a set, they may even raise. The chip leader, if loose aggressive, may even re-raise, suspecting a bluff or representing a King with a higher kicker, if they can afford to lose. Bottom pair, 77, is already beat by too many possible hands. Most players hold just about any face card
Early Position players that bet are likely to have a strong hand since they should only be playing the top 5 or 6 hands. Now you have to look at the type of player in this position. Passive players may overplay the hand and force all of the money out, unless they are on a nut flush draw holding Ac Xc, then they will probably fold to a normal bet down the line. Aggressive players could be playing any of the top 15 or even 20 hands and would bet 3 to 4 times the blinds. You don't slow play this type of board because of all the players who keep these cards, anyone could have 2 pair. Someone with bottom pair, 77, will likely fold to a big raise.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet could easily get sandwiched between AA or a set of Kings/Queens, if the early position player just checked and the late position players could have the club draw or a set of sevens. Middle position is just about the worst place to be with this type of draw, unless you have a monster.
Late Position players that are the first to bet are still going to bet 3 times the blinds. If they only check, then they could be on an Ace high hand or lower club draw, or even looking to check-raise with a set or 2 pair. Most are going to raise to at least steal the blinds. Passive players are most likely to make a weak bet or just check. Late Position players that have to call or raise can't really bluff here, unless there is only one other player in the hand, and it's a weak player. With 2 or more payers in the hand before them, they have to have a good hand that can beat a player that pairs the board but has a weak kicker.

A high card, no ace, with 2 rags

FLOPS like Qs 8h 4h - the kind of flop that may miss most hands. The best hands possible would be pocket pairs for QQQ, 888, 444, and 44 may have been mucked depending on position and player types. Still reading "Poker Wizards" by Warwick Dunnett and the section by Mike Sexton talks about bluffing opportunities. Flops that have high cards without an Ace can be represented as having the high card when they sense weakness on the other players. It's one of those areas where your cards may be irrevelent. You can bluff out the players with the Ace, even if they have a high kicker.
Early Position players that bet, if they don't have trip Queens or Eights, probably have the AQ, maybe KQ, for top pair and a great kicker. They're not likely to have Q8 or Q4, unless they are aggressive players because good players and weak players will muck them. Shouldn't be any checking here, unless someone has AA or KK, even then there should be a good size bet to limit the field.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet can almost go to steal the blinds from this position. It's still more likely that they need AA or KK or trips or 2 pair to even bet here. Just about everyone who checked or made a minimum bet is on a draw, because anyone who had a Queen may have kept it if there were weak bets pre-flop and hands like JJ, TT, and 99 may be too timid to push a big bet, they will probably make a probe bet. Middle position players that have to call a raise need a top hand like AQ, KQ, possibly QJ or 2 pair. AA and KK could call a big raise, but may re-raise to see if someone has a set. Someone with middle pair, 88, needs a high kicker and they are lilely to call a probe bet instead of re-raising. Bottom pair has to fold to a big raise before them.
Late Position players that are the first to bet can represent a lot of hands and will likely be able to steal the blinds. They need a monster hand to call a big raise from this position and can slow play a monster if there are weak bets before them.

Rags.

FLOPS like 9d 6h 2c - Pretty much missed everybody. Hands with the 9 probably have a good kicker and A9 should be leading the betting, unless someone has pocket pairs higher than the 9. The best possible hands are 999, 666, 222, and the 666 is the sign of the devil, so it's pretty much the hand to watch. If the pre-flop betting has been vigorous, then the 22 was probably mucked anyway. There's something about these middle cards that seem to make some of the pros salivate if the pre-flop betting has been unremarkable. Holding cards like T8, 78, even JT, are not uncommon, but if the pre-flop betting was heavy, those cards are gone.
Early Position players that bet first probably have a pocket pair or AK or AQ, they would probably check if they had AJ or AT. They shouldn't have any thing with a 9, unless the pre-flop betting was light. Any other hands will probably be checked and mucked to a bet or raise. Early position players that call a bet or raise probably have a pocket pair, AA to JJ and may have to muck the JJ if the betting was heavy. They could have slow played the set of 999 and really shouldn't be playing anything less.
Middle Position players that are the first to bet could have A9 or a pocket pair, but should at least bet 2 times the BB with any 2 cards since they had to have something to even make it to the flop and there is sure to be a bet after them if they check. Middle Position players that have to call a bet or raise can't mess around here. They are going to have to raise or re-raise if they have anything they think can win or muck all those second best hands. If they have a ton of chips, they can try to buy the pot, but only if the pre-flop betting was weak. They are very likely sandwiched between to good hands and out of position.
Late Position players that are the first to bet can represent just about any hand they want and should be able to steal the pot with a normal bet, they could even play this one dark. The type of hand that suits Arnold Snyder's Rochambeau style of play. If there are lots of checkers before them, there could be a trap being set, but most likely the flop missed everyone. Late Position players that have to call a bet or raise still have a decent chance with their top pocket pair or middle to low set. They will need to catch 2 cards for a straight or flush, so those draws should be gone, even the 78 won't stand up to a decent raise. Most likely no one went all-in unless they have a hand that can be beat at the turn or river or they are short stacked.
NLH Poker: Reading the board (part 1)

I Never Bluff

NLH Poker: Reading the board (Part 1)

Flop Texture
The FLOP is where most decisions are made. Depending on where you are in the betting sequence, the flop will determine how you play. Many pros talk about playing the player instead of the cards, so the seeds of doubt are planted here. You have to look at a flop according to whom it may have helped and what are the perfect cards needed to give the best hand possible. Hitting a straight-flush on the flop is 64,973 to 1, if you get one, better slow play it, and a royal flush is 10 times harder to get, but because of the high cards and high probability someone has something, you don't have to slow play it. Most players miss the flop and end up with some type of a drawing hand or are looking at two over-cards, so this is where players represent what hands they want you to believe they have. Some who actually hit something are more likely not to have the top pair or their top pair can be beat on the TURN or RIVER. Whether it's the FLOP, TURN, or RIVER, this is where the possible bluff starts and the more players in the hand, the less likely a bluff will hold to the river.

FOUR RULES FOR READING THE BOARD

1. Unless there is at least ONE PAIR on the board; it is impossible for any player to have Quads or a Full House.
2. Unless there are at least THREE SUITED cards on the board; it is impossible for any player to have a Flush.
3. Unless there are at least THREE cards on the board that have two or fewer gaps between them; it is impossible for any player to have a Straight.
4. If none of the above premium hands are possible, then the Nuts would always ba a pocket pair that makes a Set with the highest card on the board.

A couple of things about the 2 most loved cards, the Ace and King. It's about 220 to 1 that Kings will be beat by Aces. It's about 110 to 1 that any specific pair will be dealt, like AA or KK, so if you think someone has a higher pocket pair, the odds go up about 2% to 4% for each pair from 22 to KK that your pair has been cracked. At a full table AA will win about 35% of the time and KK will win about 31%. At a full table there is about an 87% chance that at least one person has an Ace and about 70% that 2 players have an Ace and you can reduce that by about 5% for each person less than the full table. Most books you read show the odds of getting that 4 of a kind or Full House or Flush or anything that could win, but the real odds are in the cards players are likely to play and the cards that are flopped. There may be a 46 to 1 chance of making a set, but if everyone plays the high Broadway cards, which means those cards don't get mucked, and two of them appear on the flop, then the odds are higher that someone may have made it. Some players don't play low pairs and some don't play low kickers, so if a 4 or two fours come out on the flop, there is a slightly less chance of it helping most of the better players, it's more likely to help a poor or loose player. If a 9 came out on the flop, there is a higher percentage of players that could have paired it and more that will get the set if 99 come on the flop, then it's all about the kicker.

So lets look at Flop textures:

If the 3 cards are a SET, something that rarely happens: Could be someone has 4 of a kind, there's less than a 1% chance though. There's about a 1% chance of making a Full House, if someone has a pocket pair, then someone is more likely to have at least a Full House by the turn, possibly more than one person will hit the Full House by the River, if the betting was heavy. 4 of a kind with an Ace kicker will be slow played by everyone except weak players. Someone holding a King kicker probably won't slow play it, they will most likely make some kind of a raise or probe bet, looking for the player with the Ace kicker.

3 Suited Cards, again not the normal type of flop: It's about 500 to 1 that anyone hit a flush on the flop. Most likely if someone has a flush they will slow play it if there are no other danger cards. Many will have a flush draw and play it to the river. With suited connectors and a straight flush possible, some will chase both the straight and flush to the river.

3 Adjacent Cards, usually doesn't happen, more likely there's at least one gap: It's about 250 to 1 that someone hit a straight on the flop. If the 3 cards are consecutive, like 7-8-9 or J-Q-K, then the scare is out on the high end that at least a pair has hit because many players will play any 2 cards if one is a Jack or higher. Most players will play any 2 cards if both are an eight or above. So you have about half of the deck being played by all of the players. Out of the 52 cards in a deck, over half are an eight or above, 28 of the 52 cards. If 3 cards are delt on the flop that are close to a run with only one gap, there is a possibility of a made straight, but more likely a big draw to the straight, and that may last all the way to the river.

PAIRS, probably happens on the same frequency as someone getting pocket pairs. With the odds of someone being dealt a pair at about 16 to 1, it's not likely anyone hit quads on the flop. It's about a 10% chance someone with pocket pairs will make a set, so they are more likely to miss the set than make it. It's about a 16% chance that someone may get 2 pair by the river if they already have a pair. Phil Gordon has a neat formula to calculate the odds of someone holding higher pocket pairs, pre-flop. He calls it the "Gordon Pair Principle". If you have 99, there are 5 higher pairs that can beat you, if there are 5 players left to act, you multiply the numbers, 5x5 = 25, then divide by 2, for 12.5, which means there is a 12.5% chance of someone beating your pairs. It's not rocket science, but something good to use when it comes down to a hard pre-flop decision.

Suited Connectors: Will it hit the Flush more likely than the Straight? This flies in the face of the odds. There are 13 cards in a suit and 2 suited cards hit the board, so there are 11 out. Since a flush beats a straight, more people are likely to chase the flush than the straight and since many players play connectors, it's more likely that the flush side will be hit.

• On the straight side there are 24 cards that can help, but the cards are specific, 3 from each side. They must have the two end cards for the straight, either one on each end or 2 on the same end. With 2 cards to come and only 8 cards that can really help, it's a bigger gamble to go for the straight.

• On the flush side there are 11 cards still to be played and any of the eleven will do. If they are holding the normal 2 suited cards, they have 9 outs that they are playing to with about a 36% chance of making the flush. Keep in mind that there is only a 25% chance of a flush before the deal.

Non-Suited Connectors: Likely to hit a Straight about 48% of the time at the river, if they already have 2 of the 24 cards needed, considering that there is only about a 38% chance of making a straight before the deal. That's 5 cards needed to make a straight and 4 ways to make it for about 20 cards that are needed, and if you have one then there are 16 cards that can help and if you have 2, then 12 that can help, which may really bring it to about 32%. We can leave it to the math guys like Skalansky and Block to give the real odds, but you will see lots of players take anything at 3 to 1 or better, as long as they still have half their chips left if they lose.

RAGS: At a full table, with 3 cards dealt above a seven, it's likely someone hit a pair and more likely that more than one person hit a pair. If the flop has an A, K, Q, or J and the other 2 cards are low and it's a rainbow, then most will bet their pair or represent that they got the pair. Everyone fears the Ace, most don't fear the King and less are likely to fear the Queen or Jack. 3 cards below an eight are most likely going to get many callers and the type of hand someone with a low set doesn't want to slow play.

I Never  Bluff

Players You Want At Your Table

http://www.askmen.com/poker/poker_tips/21_poker_tip.html
There are certain players who you always want at your table.
For different reasons, the players listed below make great tablemates, and the more you play with them, the more money you’ll have in your pocket in the long run. Here is a list of poker players that you should always have at your table.

Players with favorite starting hands
Why is their favorite hand usually something dreadful like K-J or Q-10? All we can do is be thankful and hope that we get them at our table. If they are at your table, you are going to be able to use this information for specific situations that arise. It is probably also an indicator of their general comprehension of the game. (My favorite starting hand is pocket aces… even though they will be busted a minority of the time).

Players with starting hands they hate
Ironically, these are usually strong hands like J-J, A-Q or even A-A. If you have these players at your table, watch for sudden over- or under-betting. It may indicate that they are holding one of the hands they hate. This “hate” is really just disguised fear of misplaying the hand, so they overcompensate to one extreme or the other.

Players who believe skill is better than luck
These type of players are very easy to put on tilt. Play some connectors and small pairs until you hit something on the board; then watch them spin out of control.

Players who are human calculators
Their strength of understanding the math down to the decimal point is also their weakness. Just make a bet large enough to destroy all of their pot odds and, unless they are holding aces or kings, you are golden.

These next players may be annoying, but you'll win with them at your table...

Players who think those who raise are bullies
These players believe that you should wait for proper cards to play at the appropriate time and they probably do very well in Limit Hold’em. You can usually tell who they are in a no-limit game because you have gotten most of their chips through numerous small pots.

Players who tell bad beat stories
These players are part of the group that feel skill should always overcome luck -- again, very easy to put on tilt. Give them another story to tell.

Players who are condescending
They are convinced that their poker ability is superior to all others, and they are outraged that you would call them with that hand, blah, blah, blah… The key to these players is that they are extremely insecure. They fear confident opponents and opponents who they cannot push around. I often think of the quote from the movie Gladiator when Russell Crowe’s character says to the emperor, “The time of honoring yourself is soon coming to an end.” you can bet on it

While playing with serious players who win all the time can really help improve your game, having a few flawed players at your table can also help you tremendously. Now go find some new tablemates and win yourself some cash.

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Harrington's inflecton points (Zones) are too conservative.

Harrington's Zones
Green Zone 20+ Big Blinds
Yellow Zone 10-20 Big Blinds
Orange Zone 10 Big Blinds
Red Zone 5 Big Blinds
Dead Zone 3 Big Blinds

Bluesbuster's Zones
Blue Zone 50+ Big Blinds
Green Zone 40-50 Big Blinds
Yellow Zone 30-40 Big Blinds
Orange Zone 20-30 Big Blinds
Red Zone 10-20 Big Blinds
Dead Zone 10 or less Big Blinds

Look at what it takes to make any meaningful bet and we aren't talking about rebuy phases in tournaments.
Poker players are more aggressive now, thanks to the internet and poker on TV. If you have a decent hand and even slow play the flop, you are likely to have to call one raise, which means you have at least 3 BB bets in the pot. If your hand holds up after the flop, and you want action, the pot now has 6 to 8, or more, BB bets in the pot. If you check, it's unlikely to be checked all around, you hope, so at least half the pot will be bet, which means another 5 to 6 bets, so now you are into the pot for 8 to 10 bets before the turn.
If your hand is still the top hand or you have a great draw and you want to stop others from betting, you are going to at least bet the pot, so that's another 10 bets, more if you get called by someone who hit something or is also on a draw to one of the nuts, then you have to look at their stack size relative to yours.
Are you already down to half your stack, or even 25% of your stack?
If they are the Loose Aggressive type and still have lots of chips, like 2 to 3 times what you have, they could push and catch their card on the flop, because at this time, most are playing anything if they have a 3:1 or better chance of winning. If they are Selective Aggressive, then they must have something or they wouldn't have gone this far and if they are Passive Aggressive or a Calling Station, you may really be the underdog and way behind.

Harrington's Red Zone @ 5x BB and Dead Zone at 3x BB are really both the same. You have to go All-In to bet and are likely to be called. You can't wait for the blinds because the BB is 1 bet the SB is really 1 bet, so you are easily down to 3x BB or only 1 bet left in either case.
If you have less then 10 times the BB, you are going to be all-in the next time you get a half way decent hand. So 10 times the BB is my Dead Zone. 10 to 20 times the BB is my Red Zone because all you have are enough chips for 2 decent hands and not enough for any marginal hands.
Harrington's Orange Zone @ 10 times the BB is critical, you're really on life support at this time. No one will take any bet seriously if you had a decent hand, You would have to bet at least 3x BB on the flop to limit the field, so you are down to possibly half your stack preflop. On the flop, if you made a hand, top pair or better and have to slow play it and are likely to have to bet 25% to 50% of the pot if anyone bets, so you are All-In now, because on the turn if you have to fold, you end up at the Dead Zone anyway.
20 to 30 times the BB is my Orange Zone because you can play a little or wait a little, but you only have 15 to 20 rounds left if you never bet, before being blinded out. In some tournaments, that's the starting point.
Harrington's Yellow Zone @ 10 to 20 times the Big Blind only gives you at the most 15 rounds to get a decent hand and any marginal hands played, and folded, leave you in the Dead Zone.

You need 30 to 40 times the BB to really have a chance to use any skill, so that would be my Yellow Zone. However, if 40 times the BB is on the low end of the stack size for the table you're at, your bets may not be able to put any pressure on the bigger stacks, especially if they are the Loose Aggressive types.
You must have some sort of aggressive posture to play poker and win. A Loose Aggressive player may need to have more than 40 times the BB to be effective. Almost any table you are at will have a fairly high percentage of weak or poor players and likely to have at least one Mental Midget, someone who will go all-in with 8-2 on a bluff ,when they aren't even close to being short stacked.

I have a Blue Zone. It's 50 or more times the Big Blind. This means you are likely to be one of the chip leaders and can kind of bully your way around the table if you want to. You can switch gears when you want to and be more Loose Aggressive when you want to. It's still 'All Things in Moderation' when switching gears.
One of my favorite ways to switch gears is randomly. Probably the most important thing I learned from reading Dan Harrington's books, using the clock or a watch with a second hand. If you normally raise in certain situations, look at your watch, or your neighbors watch, and when the second hand is at around 12 or less seconds to the hour, do the opposite or make more or less of a bet. That means 20% of the time you are doing something different than you normally do. You could use that switch to remain in the same playing style for a certain number of hands, just don't end up being predictable. There are many ways to introduce randomness into your game, be creative.

These Zones are dependent on how your stack compares to other stacks at the table and even the overall chip count for the tournament. You could be in the Yellow Zone and be the chip leader at the table or the short stack at the table. Either one is going to affect your playing style. These zones could change radically when there is an Ante involved.
I Never Bluff